04
Apr
The latest US inflation figures measured by the PCE (core personal consumption expenditure) indicators seem to reinforce the likelihood of Federal Reserve action in June. February's positive surprise of a core PCE indicator (excluding food & energy) at just +0.3% perhaps paves the way for (...) Still very positive environment for dollar-denominated assets Discover our [...]
03
Apr
Resilient economic momentum. Encouraging leading indicators. Recession risks averted. Inflation close to Fed target. 1st rate cut in May. Positive environment for USD assets. Beware of high PEs. USD winner. Key points US economy maintains good momentum at start of 2024 No recession, but a gradual slowdown Steady improvement in leading indicators Declining tension in [...]
27
Mar
The faster-than-expected fall in inflation in Europe at the end of 2023 quickly had a major impact on investors' expectations of key rates and market rates for 2024. These over-optimistic expectations have (...) Capital gains on lower interest rates in Q2 2024 Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't [...]
22
Mar
GDP stagnates in early 2024. Stagflation takes hold despite net decline in inflation. Less restrictive monetary policy from June. Long rates may fall by 50 bps. Positive outlook for the euro, securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP stagnates Stagflation sets in early 2024 Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Slight improvement in confidence [...]
20
Mar
When the Chinese authorities acted in January to restore investor confidence in China's equity market, we pointed out that its interventions could well be successful when the stock market rout had already cost investors $6,000 billion since (...) Recovery in exports and industrial production underpins the recovery Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more [...]
15
Mar
A recession more akin to a slowdown. Economic recovery possible in the 1st half of the year. Rapid fall in inflation. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The UK has finally entered recession The start of 2024 could already be more positive Slight improvement [...]
13
Mar
Since 2022, the spectacular rise in inflation has prompted changes in monetary policy and interest rate hikes in most countries. In Switzerland, as inflation (CPI YOY) jumped from 1.5% to 3.5%, between December 2021 and August 2022 the Confederation's ten-year yields underwent an adjustment from -0.68% to (...) Inflation and interest rate differentials finally in [...]
06
Mar
Resilient economy in early 2024. Inflation under control. Monetary easing imminent. Yield and inflation differentials unfavorable to the franc. Low potential for bond markets. Better outlook for SMI. Key points Swiss economy surprisingly resilient Swiss exports penalized by strong franc Leading indicators remain uninspiring Swiss inflation is now close to +1% SNB may lower rates [...]
06
Mar
The price of the yellow metal has soared to new heights in recent days, after stabilizing for a long time at levels close to its previous peaks of 2020, 2022 and 2023, slightly below $2,100 per ounce. In 2023, gold prices failed to resist profit-taking on the approach to all-time highs, while (...) Gold resumes [...]
01
Mar
Japan is in recession. Another difficult start to 2024. Inflation finally falls. No solution for the Japanese currency. Monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Nikkei attacks the all-time record set in 1989. Key points Q4 GDP confirms our forecast of a moderate recession in Japan at the end of 2023 Outlook for Q1 2024 remains [...]
