27
Mar
Recession in 2023. A resilient 1st quarter. Temporary recovery in household confidence. Inflation not under control. BoE on pause. Bond yields adjust. Real estate succumbs. Equities still attractive Key points Uk economy moves closer to a recession Q1 2023 could still be resilient Leading indicators still mixed Job market still resilient Household confidence has improved [...]
23
Mar
The US Federal Reserve meeting ended with a 0.25% increase in key rates. This may well mark the end of the monetary tightening cycle that began twelve months ago, despite the door being left open to further possible increases by (...) Markets still betting on rate cuts in 2023 Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
17
Mar
The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank has already pushed the American authorities and the Fed to act very quickly to avoid a panic. The former, through the voice of President Biden, sought to reassure by noting that the banking system was solid, while (...) Monetary conditions will need to be eased Discover our Investment [...]
17
Mar
The bankruptcy of the SVB has various consequences. The systemic risk seems to be ruled out by central banks. CS is a global systemic bank. SNB support was expected. A likely new paradigm for rates. Key points Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bankruptcy will affect US monetary policy The next US rate hike could be the [...]
16
Mar
Growth at a standstill in Q4. Mixed leading indicators. Slight improvement in consumer confidence. Trade deficit narrowed. Inflation down. Expansionary monetary policy. Moderate outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Japan's economy stalled in Q4 (9%) Barely positive outlook for Q1 2023 GDP growth up +1% in 2023 Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Weak improvement in [...]
09
Mar
The Swiss market is no exception to the recent correlation between capital markets. In spite of different economic cycles and different monetary policies, the less favorable than expected development of inflation in most countries has rekindled uncertainties in (...) CHF bond yields are attractive again Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make [...]
06
Mar
The economy stagnated in the fourth quarter. Recession risks remain low. The rebound in inflation does not appear to be sustainable. Monetary policy reversal delayed. Attractive bond yields. Positive outlook for equities. Key points Swiss economy stalls in Q4 Outlook reduced to +0.7% growth in 2023 Domestic demand supports GDP Leading indicators slightly more positive [...]
01
Mar
New rents in the United States fell by -3.5% in January from their peak in August 2022. This is now the first consecutive six-month decline in five years. After having largely benefited from a rise in demand following the pandemic (...) Positive impact on U.S. interest rates: buy bonds Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
22
Feb
European equities have benefited greatly from the marked improvement in the stock market climate in recent months. With an increase of 11.5% (in CHF) in 2023, they often outperform other regional indices (S&P500 +6.2%, Japan +2.3%, China +7.3%). Since the beginning of the stock market recovery (...) Arbitrage on US stocks and emerging markets Discover [...]
15
Feb
U.S. strategic reserves will decline further in the near term. President Biden's decision to release an additional 26 million barrels in the coming months will further reduce the level of reserves below 350 million barrels in an unstated goal (...) World crude oil demand above 100 Mbpd in 2023 Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
