16
Nov
The U.S. corporate earnings season ended with the lowest ratio of companies, beating estimates recorded since Q1 2020, despite lowered expectations. Companies generally announced margin cuts (...) Margins and revenues will decline more in Europe Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure you don't miss any of our publications and have [...]
09
Nov
Indeed, during the phase of rapid rise in the US ten-year Treasury rates from 1.5% to 4.2% this year, and the concomitant rise in the dollar index of almost +20%, gold prices have in fact logically recorded a decline. However, (...) Time to build up sufficient exposure to gold mines Discover our Investment Flash down [...]
02
Nov
The upward acceleration in US long rates provides an interesting opportunity in the likely context of an emerging recession and diminishing inflationary risks. Indeed, 10-year US Treasury yields offer a 4% return and (...) Free lunch for a Swiss investor? Discover our Investment Flash down below Read more To make sure you don't miss any [...]
25
Oct
The October PMIs plunge in the US in the wake of accelerating interest rates and rising systemic risks. Too high interest rates and an overly strong dollar are affecting global liquidity and increasing the risk of recessions and defaults. These could be (...) Will the markets wait to go into "risk-on" mode? Discover our Investment [...]
18
Oct
Temporary GDP growth in Q3. Leading indicators point to a slowdown. Consumption is at risk. New inflation regime. The Fed must adjust its action. The dollar is losing momentum. A "risk on" mode is setting in. Key points Temporary exit from recession expected in Q3 "Hard landing" still possible in the US Leading indicators fall [...]
18
Oct
The appreciation of the dollar and high yields disqualify other assets. Rising rates are proving to be a systemic threat. Default risks increase. Dollar liquidity declines. The Fed must change its policy. Key points Long live the US dollar! The appreciation of the dollar disqualifies other assets A side note on money creation and debt [...]
14
Oct
Europe still avoids recession. Confidence at its lowest. Inflation reaches +10%. The ECB follows a more moderate strategy. Yield curves still positive. Excessive fall in European real estate. Equity risk premium of 45%. Key points Can Europe repeat its relative performance in Q3 and avoid a decline in GDP? Still uncertain outlook for Q4 Leading [...]
12
Oct
European gas prices have fallen by -54% since their peak in August and are now at their lowest level since July. LNG imports into Europe have hit their highest level since 2016 and milder temperatures expected in the coming weeks are supporting the trend. It is also reinforced by (...) Opportunity to reposition on alternative [...]
10
Oct
New government already discredited. Massive rate rise. Risk of bankruptcy of UK pension funds. Fall of the pound.180 degree turn in monetary policy. Stability of real estate prices. Limited shock to equities. Key points The new British government announces a "mini-budget" that causes chaos UK economy still in overdrive in Q3? Leading indicators still indecisive [...]
05
Oct
Positive economic situation in Japan. Mixed leading indicators. Weak yen pushes inflation up. Monetary policy still expansionary. Interest-free bond yields. Weakening outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Very positive revision of Japanese GDP in Q2 (+3.5%) Less favourable outlook for the current quarter Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Surprising increase in retail sales in a [...]
