Weekly analysis


28 Dec

The Fed should lower its rates in March 2024  

Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation will reach the +2% target in Q2 2024. The Fed will have to cut rates. Continued readjustment of yield curves. The dollar under pressure. Positive outlook for equities. Key points Significant slowdown after an exceptional 3rd quarter Declining momentum raises fears of recession Leading indicators do not point to [...]
22 Dec

The surprise fall in inflation in the Euro zone reshuffles the cards

Entry into recession in Q4. Inflation declines faster than expected. New paradigm for ECB policy and euro bond yields. Favourable environment for securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP finally slips into negative territory in Q3 Technical recession expected in Q4 2023 Leading indicators point to a fall in activity Confidence indices stabilize [...]
20 Dec

Return of geopolitical influence on crude oil

The evolution of the global macroeconomic scenario, suggesting a weakening of growth prospects for 2024, has already had a fairly significant negative impact on crude oil prices in recent weeks. However, the relatively orderly decline in crude oil prices from almost $95 a barrel at the end of September to just $68 in mid-December, due [...]
15 Dec

Adjusting the outlook for UK assets

Recession postponed until 2024. Household confidence improves. Inflation finally falling significantly. Prudence and pragmatism from the BoE. Rates normalize. Rebound in securitized real estate and equities. Key points British economy still flirting with recession Recession postponed until early 2024 Timid recovery in leading indicators Significant downturns in the labor market Household confidence improves Inflation finally [...]
13 Dec

Normalization of outlooks for GBP rates

The increasingly visible cyclical slowdown, along with a more pronounced easing of inflation, now raises hopes for a somewhat different trajectory than envisaged just a few months ago for interest rates. In October, the ten-year rates of the UK government once again reached the (...) More favorable evolution supported by a clearer easing of inflation [...]
08 Dec

Monetary easing and a 12% rise in Swiss company profits by 2024

Economic slowdown in Q4. Inflation close to zero. Easing in Q2 2024. Historical yield differentials unfavourable to the franc. Bond yields below 1%. Sharp rise in corporate profits in 2024. Key points Q3 better, but questionable Slowdown expected in Q4 Fragile resilience in household consumption Leading indicators still uninspiring Further decline in foreign trade No [...]
07 Dec

Silver prices do not reflect fundamentals

The silver prices do not reflect the very positive fundamentals of the current market. Industrial and jewelry demand are expected to show strong growth over the next decade. In particular, the demand for silver in the rapidly expanding solar sector is extremely robust, as is the demand related to the production of electric vehicles. These [...]
30 Nov

Less favorable environment for Nikkei

Japanese corporate profits are likely to have risen by 14% in Q3 and, according to the current consensus, should increase by a further 11.4% in 2024. On the basis of these results and expectations, the Japanese market advanced until June and then stabilised. It outperformed the other developed markets in local currencies, gaining (...) The [...]
27 Nov

Attractive profits for Nikkei stocks

Possible recession in the 4th quarter. Rebound in inflation linked to the fall in the currency. Contraction in real household income. Monetary policy still expansionary. Yen's decline falters. Less positive conditions for the Nikkei. Key points A much more dramatic 3rd quarter than expected Possible recession at the end of the year in Japan Significant [...]
22 Nov

Swiss real estate favored by a 1% 10-year rate

After the sharp rise in the Swiss Confederation's ten-year yields to 1.6% in December 2022 and March 2023, the long end of the CHF yield curve steepened fairly sharply over the summer. Ten-year yields then followed the international uptrend from June to October, before falling back (...) Attractive yields, risk premiums and agios Discover our [...]