Weekly analysis


13 Sep

Bullish recovery likely for Swiss equities

The Swiss equity market remained highly indecisive over the summer, penalized in particular by the strength of the Swiss franc against the dollar and the euro in July, and a still restrictive monetary policy. The macroeconomic data and statistics published, although very favorable on the inflation front (1.6%/year) and below the (...) Outlook supported by [...]
12 Sep

More favorable outlook after one last BNS rate hike in 2023

GDP growth slowed. Inflation stabilizes below 2%. End of key rate hike cycle imminent. Potential weakness of the Swiss franc. Stabilization of yields. Bullish recovery for equities. Key points Swiss economy slows sharply in Q2, with seasonally adjusted real GDP stagnating Private consumption and service exports on the rise Leading indicators still not very encouraging [...]
06 Sep

The oil market is in deficit

Crude oil prices have risen by almost 30% since their March 2023 low and are now trading at their highest level of the year, at $85.5 for WTI and $88.5 for Brent. They have finally reacted positively (...) Rising crude oil prices and oil stocks set to continue Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
01 Sep

Attractive opportunities in various real estate securitization markets

Gradual reduction in uncertainty. Positive impact of falling inflation and the end of the rate-tightening cycle. Attractive valuations of listed real estate indices in Europe and the UK. Relative yields and agios also attractive in Switzerland. Key points Risks discounted, current prices represent real investment opportunities A particularly favorable price/net asset ratio for European real [...]
31 Aug

Real rates are too high in China

China's central bank (PBoC) may well be on the verge of changing its strategy and adopting a more aggressive monetary policy to support a Chinese economy that is performing less well than expected. The expected growth of +5.1% for 2023 seems (...) The PBOC will support GDP with further cuts in the RRR and MLF [...]
23 Aug

Real yields on tips will fall

Real TIPS yields are once again at record highs, a phenomenon that is unlikely to last. Ten-year nominal Treasury yields should theoretically take into account long-term trends in the economic cycle and inflation trends, but in practice, long rates are largely influenced by short-term prospects. This is particularly the case since the raising of the [...]
17 Aug

SNB balance sheet down 20% in one year

The SNB still seems concerned about the level of inflation, despite the very sharp decline in price indices, which pushed the annual CPI (+1.6%) below its target (+2%). It is still considering further increases to ensure (...) Beware of a more restrictive monetary policy than you might think Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read [...]
09 Aug

US Treasury pulls rates up with record issuance

Fitch's downgrading of the US Treasury's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ is unlikely to have a major impact on the US government's ability to borrow on the markets. But this decision comes at the wrong time, when (...) Yet falling inflation suggests lower yields Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To [...]
04 Aug

Optimizing an investment strategy with structured produts

SMART BRC+ Yield enhanement : a BBGI concept focused on the use of BRCs Key points A brief overview and classification of structured products? Institutional and privae investors increasingly conviced The 3 main forms of structured products Demystifying supposed risks Flexible instruments for all types of markets How to assess their effeciveness? SMAR BRC+ Yield [...]
02 Aug

The euro bond market has not bottomed out

Eurozone GDP rose by +0.3% in Q2, putting an end to two quarterly sequences of stagnation, while core inflation no longer slipped, stabilizing at +5.5% in July. This modest return to growth, in an environment that is still too inflationary, should not (...) Growth and inflation will push rates even higher Discover our Investment Flash [...]