Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation falls in services. Long-lasting Fed pause. Downward adjustments to yield curves. Weak dollar. Positive outlook for bonds and equities.

Key points

• Economic growth may be slowing more than it seems
• Slowdown looms for year-end
• Leading indicators suggest a soft landing
• Job market still highly uncertain
• The Federal Reserve will mark a lasting pause
• Inflation now also falling in services
• Excessive tension on yield curves
• The dollar temporarily benefits from rising rates
• Positive outlook for equity markets

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