Weekly analysis

12 Mar

Strong yen threatens GDP growth and the equities market

It is essential that the yen weaken. Consumption and leading indicators are wavering. Exports and corporate earnings are faltering. Going long the Nikkei is premature. Key points The strong yen is threatening Japanese growth Risk of economic slowdown in Q1 2018 The export cycle has already decelerated Corporate earnings growth is faltering Private consumption trends [...]
05 Mar

Swiss GDP forecasts revised: +2.2% in 2018

The Swiss franc’s weak spell is not over. The bond bubble is deflating. Tensions on the interest rate curve. Corrections to risky assets could represent an opportunity. Key points The forecast acceleration of Swiss GDP in the second half of the year will continue in 2018 +2.2% GDP growth in 2018 Leading indicators are looking [...]
28 Feb

Probable trend reversal for the dollar in 2018

Dollar increasingly likely to bounce back. Waning influence of European fundamentals on the euro. Brexit to weigh on the pound again. Beware of the overly strong yen. Further adjustment of the franc. Key points The dollar is likely to strengthen after three years of consolidation and a 50% correction following the 2011-2016 bull market Speculative [...]
30 Jan

The global long rate recovery is taking shape in 2018

The consensus is still sceptical regarding the inflation recovery. The United States could surprise us in 2018. Correlation on rate markets. Be careful of the European market. Rate rise in Switzerland. Key points Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Rate hikes and flattening yield curve A rise in long-term rates is [...]
30 Jan

Better real estate fundamentals in the Eurozone and Asia

Global growth speeds up. Rent and prices rise. Rates no longer represent a threat. Favourable risk premium. The Eurozone and Asia outperform. Key points Upward real estate trend continues in 2017 and 2018 Global growth picks up to +4% Interest rates still do not constitute a threat in 2018 Inflation will keep real-terms rates historically [...]
05 Jan

USA : End of PE growth will weigh on S&P 500

Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3%. Pressures on corporate margins. Flattening of the yield curve. End of PE expansion. Caution on the S&P 500. Key points Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3% Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Flattening of the yield curve Rise of the dollar after three [...]
19 Dec

The Eurozone economy is gaining power and asserting itself

Eurozone growth is stepping up. The Euro has stabilised temporarily. A rise in long-term rates is on the cards for 2018. European assets will outperform in 2018. Key points The ECB seems particularly optimistic and is sticking to its monetary policy Growth forecasts have increased to +2.3% (2018) Inflation will remain modest in 2018 (+1.4%) [...]
14 Dec

The UK to pay 50 billion, but the hardest part has yet to come

Brexit negotiations resuming. GDP holding up (+0.4%). The BOE to keep rates unchanged for a time. Inevitable increase in long-term rates. Lethargic equities market. Key points GDP up +0.4%, or +1.5% yoy Finally, sufficient progress to move on to the second phase of the negotiations Is the UK giving up? The hardest is yet to [...]
08 Dec

The Nikkei hit 23,000, time to take profits

The Japanese economy still has momentum. Exports are still the main driver of growth. Consumer spending remains tentative. The Nikkei may already be reflecting earnings growth. Key points GDP rose a further +0.6% in Q4 (+2.5% yoy) Longest economic expansion phase in Japan since the mid-90s Exports continue to drive growth, rising +14.1% yoy GDP [...]
05 Dec

Swiss GDP expected to accelerate to +1.8%

Manufacturing sector boom. Exports and consumption likely to recover. The Swiss franc will continue to be weak. More than 25 billion in profit for the SNB in 2017. Key points GDP rose +0.6% in the 3rd quarter, and +1.2% yoy Strong prospects for the last quarter GDP growth for 2017 estimated at +1.5% Favourable forecasts [...]