Weekly analysis


26 Sep

Actual risks of recession in the US overestimated

GDP up +2.2% in 2019. Declining nominal and real rates beneficial to the economy. Leading indicators still wavering. Rebound in long-term rates. Beware of PE ratios. Key points Excessive pessimism unfounded but ultimately favourable to economic growth Nominal and real rates will support economic momentum The Fed confirms +2.2% GDP growth expectations for 2019 Economic [...]
24 Sep

Supreme Court reduces threat of no-deal Brexit

GDP down -0.2% in Q2. Real risk of recession. Likelihood of no-deal withdrawal decreases. BOE in wait-and-see mode. Possible upswing of long-term sterling rates. Key points Boris Johnson’s strategy defeated by the Supreme Court Threat of a no-deal Brexit diminishes A technical recession might be avoided following the -0.2% decline in GDP in Q2 The [...]
19 Sep

Can European growth recover without Germany?

GDP up +0.2% in Q2. Germany poses a problem. The ECB to inject 20bn/month for two years. Rebound of the euro. Asset rotation favourable to European equities. Key points Contraction of Germany’s GDP hampers growth in Europe Underlying trends in consumption and investment remain positive Leading indicators may have seen the worst and finally seem [...]
17 Sep

Private and public spending boost Japanese GDP

GDP up +0.3% in Q2. Consumption still robust. Exports plunge. BOJ could decide to sit tight. Earnings of listed firms down. Key points Japanese GDP maintains positive momentum in Q2 with +0.3% growth Consumption, up +0.6%, bolsters growth Falling exports (-10.2% in August), in particular to Asia, hurt Japanese economy Trade deficit shrinks to -136 [...]
13 Sep

General uncertainty also impacting Swiss economy in Q2

Low GDP growth in Q2 (+0.3%). Scaled down prospects for 2019. Decrease in rates will not last. High equity valuations. Extreme real estate premiums. Key points Logical slowdown in GDP growth in Q2 in a very uncertain context (+0.3%) Consumption is the main GDP growth driver (+0.3%) Things finally looking up for leading indicators Growth [...]
01 Jul

G20 fails to provide solutions but may induce Fed not to act

Power struggle to carry on beyond G20 meeting. Expectations of key rates’ cuts too high. Consumption to drive GDP. Reduce equity exposure once again. Key points G20 fails to provide solutions but truce could induce Fed to hold off Central bank faced with a difficult choice Lowering rates will consolidate recession scenario Waiting until September [...]
23 Jun

Recession increasingly likely in UK

Industrial output down -2.7% and GDP down -0.4% in April. Pressure on the pound. BOE steps back. Seven contenders for Theresa May’s job. Key points Who wants to replace Theresa May? Boris Johnson favourite among seven contenders Leading indicators deteriorated in May Manufacturing PMI drops under 50 Industrial output plunged by -2.7% in April Economic [...]
19 Jun

Is Europe’s GDP growth rate of +0.4% sustainable?

Consumption picking up (+0.5%). PMIs still on the fence. Long-term rates at historical low. Euro relatively stable. High risk premiums on European equities (27%). Key points European growth stronger than expected so far this year GDP up +0.4% (+1.2% yoy) Household consumption up +0.5% Leading indicators may have turned a corner and seem to be [...]
14 Jun

Japanese GDP resilient despite trade showdown

GDP growth stabilises at +2% yoy. Cautious consumers. Manufacturing under pressure. BOJ may cut rates to -0.3%. Nikkei impacted by trade tensions. Key points More positive surprises in Q1 with +0.5% GDP growth Japanese growth stabilises at +2% yoy, surprising forecasters Less impressive performance than it might seem Consumers remain worried Leading indicators still weighed [...]
11 Jun

Is the current euphoria in the Swiss equity market sustainable?

Sharp upturn in GDP growth. Solid outlook for 2019. Interest rate trends still atypical. Caution with regard to euphoria in the equity market. Key points Sharp increase in GDP in Q1 (+0.6%, +1.7% yoy) We maintain a growth outlook of +1.5% for 2019 Domestic and foreign demand together are boosting economic momentum in Switzerland Outlook [...]