Weekly analysis

02 Jul

The European economy is holding its course despite uncertainty

GDP is expected to recover. Inflation hits 2% target. The Euro is weakening. Nothing to report from the ECB until 2019. Long rate rise held hostage. 25% “discount” on European equities. Key points Euro Summit in June rings hollow Compromise on the migratory crises Brexit negotiations flounder The migrant crisis eclipses Eurozone reform The EU [...]
18 Jun

The Fed will not derail a booming economy

Acceleration in GDP growth in Q2 to +3.4%. Revision of outlook for GDP and inflation. Contraction in margins, profits and multiples. Remain cautious on the S&P 500. Key points US Federal Reserve unsurprisingly raises key rates by +0.25% Seventh hike since 2015 The Fed’s latest message is clear, monetary policy will not derail a booming [...]
14 Jun

Brexit talks and British economy at a standstill

Impossible political agenda. No more hard Brexit? Sluggish GDP growth (+0.1%). Pound in wait-and-see mode. Long-term rate adjustment postponed. Caution with regard to equities. Points clés Brexit talks: more than ever, confusion abounds The European Union rejects London’s proposals A victory for pro-European MPs that eliminates the risk of a no-deal outcome? Impossible political agenda [...]
08 Jun

GDP growth in Japan declines in Q1 for the first time since 2015

Risks of a technical recession in Q2. Depreciation of the yen still insufficient. Lacklustre leading indicators. Positive output gap. Nikkei rise depends on the yen factor. Key Points Previously mentioned risks of an economic slowdown materialised in Q1 (-0.2%) Growth declines by -0.6% yoy Long sequence of quarterly increases in GDP comes to an end [...]
06 Jun

Swiss GDP grows +2.2% but the equity market is wavering

Sustained economic growth. 10-year high on inflation. Long rates look set to recover. Renewed weakness for the Swiss franc. Swiss equities are depressed but wavering. Key Points The +0.6% rise in GDP in the 1st quarter confirms the trend from the end of 2017 A buoyant 2018 for the Swiss economy GDP growth could exceed [...]
29 May

Hedge funds : Which outlook for 2018 after floundering for 10 years?

Alternative investments have not delivered on their promise since the 2008 crisis. Today more than ever, caution is advised. BBGI Alternative+ : A different approach to alternative investments. Key Points Alternative investments are not the magic bullet investors were expecting in terms of performance and asset de-correlation Unsatisfactory performance still manifest in 2018 However, disappointing [...]
04 May

Volatility in financial markets offers new opportunities

Bullish recovery for US equities. Use the opportunity to reposition in emerging markets. Probable loss of « momentum » for European equities. Buy Switzerland. Key Points The correction in equity markets offers new opportunities The recent phase of underperformance of the American market should not last Bullish recovery for US equities Positive outlook, but risks [...]
02 May

New opportunities on real estate markets in the Eurozone

Expected recovery in real estate in April. Rates are not yet a real threat. Favorable risk premium. The Eurozone outperforms. Return of interest for the US. Points clés Sharp rebound in real estate after a temporary correction of the indices International growth favorable to real estate Rising interest rates may soon be threatening in some [...]
30 Apr

Bonds markets still relatively unaffected by US interest rates at 3%

Higher expected inflation in the USA. Warning on the interest rate markets. The European cycle is still hesitating. Confederation yields finally settle above zero. Key points US Treasury long rates above 3% Gradual rise in expected inflation Reversal of the long-term rate cycle in the euro area British long-term rate at 2% Still no prospect [...]
03 Apr

The temporary fall in industrial metals is an opportunity

The risk of a “trade war” is overstated. A rise in customs duties will not reduce demand. Limited production, robust demand, falling inventories. Key points Industrial metals slide -7% in the 1st quarter, with only nickel playing its hand well Risks of a trade war are sparking widespread profit-taking Ongoing tensions, China will call on [...]