17
Jul
While the cycle of negative monetary conditions for alternative energies has already reached its inflection point in the Eurozone, it is now very close to reversing in the USA. A cycle of key rate cuts will be synonymous with declining financing costs and lower capitalization rates. In June, the consumer price index recorded (...) Attractive [...]
12
Jul
Loss of economic momentum. ISM leading indicators point downwards. Normalization continues in the labor market. Services inflation finally falls. The Fed is overdue and will have to act. Focus on USD-denominated assets. Key points US economy loses momentum Economic slowdown takes shape in Q2 ISM leading indicators turn downward Falling tensions in the job market [...]
10
Jul
Monthly inflation for May proved better than expected, rising by just +0.006%. This is now the 3rd consecutive monthly decline in the level of inflation, which is now clearly below the data that had worried the markets in February (+0.4%). The May figure thus sees inflation at its lowest (...) Longer maturities in investment grade [...]
04
Jul
Moderate GDP growth. Inflation may fall further. The ECB has begun its rate-cutting cycle. Positive outlook for bond markets. Price/net asset ratios still attractive. Very favorable discount for equities. Key points 1st quarter rebound to continue into 2024 Growth returns at a slower pace Leading indicators remain uncertain Household confidence stabilizes Inflation may yet decline [...]
03
Jul
Following the SNB's second key rate cut in June, we expect it to cut rates again in September, from 1.25% to 1%, in view of inflation trends well below its 2% target. The SNB is aiming for a neutral, non-expansionary monetary policy, which should be characterized by real interest rates of (...) More favorable conditions [...]
28
Jun
The UK is already out of recession. Weaker growth in Q2. Inflation nears BoE target. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The expected economic rebound is underway A probably weaker 2nd quarter Leading indicators continue to improve Falling tensions in the job market Household [...]
26
Jun
No recession in Switzerland. Worrying leading indicators. Falling exports. Inflation stumbles over the 1% threshold. Rate cuts in line with our expectations. Limited weakness of the franc. Long-term rate target achieved. Positive outlook for the SMI. Key points The Swiss economy is moving at a slow pace Swiss exports plunge again Leading indicators more worrying [...]
26
Jun
Japan is in recession. GDP may improve in Q3. Export rebound. Temporary upturn in inflation. Household confidence at half-mast. Yen at lowest level since 1986. Outlook for Nikkei still positive. Key points Further contraction of the Japanese economy Improvement possible in Q3 Further hesitation in leading indicators Household consumption remains subdued Falling yen boosts imported [...]
26
Jun
The Swiss National Bank did not initially react to the rise in inflation following the Covid crisis, which strengthened in 2021 and 2022, peaking in August at 3.2% (CPI all items). Inflation had already started to trend downwards, as the SNB raised rates for the first time from -0.75% to (...) Inflation already expected to [...]
19
Jun
Inflation in the eurozone is no longer falling, and is stabilizing slightly above 2%, as indicated by the latest eurozone CPI published today. Services, housing and energy have returned to reasonable levels, and no longer seem to represent an immediate risk of slippage. As a result, the ECB was able to (...) Equities to benefit [...]
