Twelve-month countdown for an agreement on Brexit terms


19 Mar

Twelve-month countdown for an agreement on Brexit terms

GDP is flagging. Twelve months to reach an agreement on Brexit terms. The pound remains stable and monetary policy unchanged. Long rates rise. Caution advised on equities.

Points clés

  • Economic activity flags in Q4 (+0.4%), 2018 expectations at +1.5%
  • Agreement on post-Brexit transition period offers relief given tense context
  • Forestalling failure in 12 months
  • Cost estimates of various possible trade agreements are concerning
  • British taxpayers will pay for Brexit until 2064
  • Rising unease among businesses and multinationals – Unilever decamps
  • Pound remains stable and confident against the euro
  • Policy rates will remain unchanged in H1
  • Likely increase of long-term government bond yields to 2%
  • UK equities: caution advised