Is growth already slowing? Gradual rise in expected inflation. Risk of a trade war. Margins, profits and multipliers contract. Caution on the S&P 500.
- The Fed has announced two further rate rises in 2018, and likely three in 2019
- Key rates at 2.875% in 2019
- Is US growth already slowing?
- GDP forecast to grow +2.7% in 2018 and +2.4% in 2019
- Trump is implementing his protectionist policy
- New risks of a trade war
- Inflation has surpassed the Fed’s target
- Gradual rise in expected inflation
- US Treasury long rates above 3%
- The rise in the US dollar is keeping us waiting
- Margins, profits and multipliers are contracting, posing a risk to equity markets
- It is likely that volatility will return
- Caution on US equities