20
Mar
Germany hampers European growth and confidence
Weak GDP growth in Q4 (+0.2%). Outlook for 2019 revised downward.
ECB to reinject liquidity (TLTROs). Euro resilient. Take profit on equities.
Key points
- European growth still very weak in Q4 2018 (+0.2%)
- Germany solely responsible
- European GDP up +1.2% yoy
- German economy narrowly avoids entering a technical recession
- Leading indicators may have already seen the worst but fail to bounce back
- Manufacturing PMI below 50
- Situation in Germany hampering confidence
- Euro stays resilient
- ECB announces a new series of TLTROs
- No rate hike but 700 billion in loans
- Bond market yields temporarily vanish
- European equities retain their risk premium after indices rise +13%
- Time to take profits on equities
