12
Apr
Uncertainty persists following six-month Brexit extension
More time to avoid a no-deal withdrawal. Economy on the brink. Interest rates out of kilter. Resilient currency. Caution on the pound and all UK asset classes.
Key points
- The deadline has come and gone, now what?
- More time to avoid a no-deal withdrawal
- Six-month extension until 31 October 2019
- No-deal risks not factored into interest rates
- Ten-year yields at 1% inappropriate given the UK’s situation
- Significant risks of upswing in inflation and yield curve
- Currency could still be hit by a no-deal Brexit
- Avoid exposure to the pound
- Brexit-related uncertainty further threatens growth (composite PMI at 50)
- UK GDP bordering on recession
- Recession or major shock to follow no-deal Brexit
- Is the BOE prepared to hike rates?
- Caution on equities and real estate
- Real estate prices decrease
