Recession increasingly likely in UK


23 Jun

Recession increasingly likely in UK

Industrial output down -2.7% and GDP down -0.4% in April. Pressure on the pound. BOE steps back. Seven contenders for Theresa May’s job.

Key points

  • Who wants to replace Theresa May?
  • Boris Johnson favourite among seven contenders
  • Leading indicators deteriorated in May
  • Manufacturing PMI drops under 50
  • Industrial output plunged by -2.7% in April
  • Economic contraction in Q2
  • Monthly GDP down -0.4% in April
  • Consumer confidence improves
  • Job market still solid
  • Jobless rate decreases to 3.8%
  • No longer any reason for the BOE to hike rates
  • Stabilisation of real estate market
  • Too much risk in capital markets
  • Risk of recession weighs on the pound
  • Caution on equities and real estate