Swiss GDP down -2.6% with a more brutal shock in store for Q2


08 Jun

Swiss GDP down -2.6% with a more brutal shock in store for Q2

-10% contraction expected in Q2. Economic recovery will take place in H2. SNB will not change course. Weakening of the franc. Gradual rebound of long-term rates. Reduce equity risk.

Key points

  • Switzerland’s GDP contracts more sharply in Q1 than experts expected
  • The drop in GDP in Q1 is actually due to only two weeks of confinement
  • Switzerland withstands Covid-19 shock more successfully
  • Further -10% shock to GDP in Q2?
  • What prospects for H2?
  • SNB remains discrete but active
  • Shift in outlook for rates
  • Beware, euphoria already replacing panic
  • Valuations once again high for Swiss equities