11
Dec
More attractive risk premium for US government debt
Economic momentum slows. Weakened employment and consumption. Priority to growth.
Unavoidable continuation of deficit monetisation. Rising earnings for equities.
Key points
- GDP momentum expected to slow sharply in Q4
- Employment remains fragile and could penalise
consumption. - The four priorities of the new US president
- Rising government deficit and risks of structural
depreciation of the US dollar - Post-Covid debt financing implies further
monetisation of new issuance - The Fed can only stay the course
- The rise in long-term rates increases the relative
attractiveness of the bond market - Exceptional rebound in corporate profits