16
Aug
End of recession likely in Q3 already in the US
Technical recession confirmed in Q2. The Fed still does not believe in a recession. Strong rise in household credit. Inflation starts to decelerate. A recovery already in Q3. Stabilisation of interest rate markets. Stocks rebound.
Key points
- US economy contracts in Q2 for the 2nd consecutive quarter and enters recession
- Exit from recession already possible in Q3
- Leading indicators show a positive trend
- Increased credit to compensate for loss of purchasing power
- The Federal Reserve does not believe in a recession
- Inflation has finally started to decelerate
- Fixed income markets also anticipate a decline in inflation
- Equities also benefit from falling yields
