31
Mar
Which European assets to focus on ?
Recession likely in 2023. ECB rate target at 4%. Decorrelation of monetary policies. Bullish recovery of domestic yields. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations of securitized real estate and equities.
Key points
- European economy falters but still avoids a recession in Q4 2022
- Limited economic contraction in the first half of the year
- Leading indicators supported by services
- European households remain worried
- The services sector is holding back a net decline in inflation
- European trade deficit shrinks
- ECB reassures and raises key rates
- Euro bond yields decorrelated
- Euro likely to appreciate
- Real estate unfairly penalized by the banking crisis
- European equities resist uncertainty
