23
Jun
Recession increasingly likely in UK
Industrial output down -2.7% and GDP down -0.4% in April. Pressure on the pound. BOE steps back. Seven contenders for Theresa May’s job.
Key points
- Who wants to replace Theresa May?
- Boris Johnson favourite among seven contenders
- Leading indicators deteriorated in May
- Manufacturing PMI drops under 50
- Industrial output plunged by -2.7% in April
- Economic contraction in Q2
- Monthly GDP down -0.4% in April
- Consumer confidence improves
- Job market still solid
- Jobless rate decreases to 3.8%
- No longer any reason for the BOE to hike rates
- Stabilisation of real estate market
- Too much risk in capital markets
- Risk of recession weighs on the pound
- Caution on equities and real estate