Risks of recession loom large. Inflation falling too slowly. Key rates towards 5%. Rising yield curves. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations for securitized real estate and European equities.

Key points

• Eurozone economy avoids recession with +0.1% growth in Q2
• Further stagnation in quarterly GDP in Q3 and Q4
• Leading indicators point to recession
• Confidence indices fall again
• Falling inflation still insufficient for ECB
• ECB to raise key interest rates to 5%
• Economic slowdown will not prevent euro bond yields from rising
• Decoupling of monetary policies in favor of the euro
• Ongoing revaluation of securitized real estate
• Equities rise again after 8 months of stability

Discover an extract from our weekly analysis below:

Full version