26
Jun
No recession in Switzerland. Worrying leading indicators. Falling exports. Inflation stumbles over the 1% threshold. Rate cuts in line with our expectations. Limited weakness of the franc. Long-term rate target achieved. Positive outlook for the SMI. Key points The Swiss economy is moving at a slow pace Swiss exports plunge again Leading indicators more worrying [...]
26
Jun
Japan is in recession. GDP may improve in Q3. Export rebound. Temporary upturn in inflation. Household confidence at half-mast. Yen at lowest level since 1986. Outlook for Nikkei still positive. Key points Further contraction of the Japanese economy Improvement possible in Q3 Further hesitation in leading indicators Household consumption remains subdued Falling yen boosts imported [...]
26
Jun
The Swiss National Bank did not initially react to the rise in inflation following the Covid crisis, which strengthened in 2021 and 2022, peaking in August at 3.2% (CPI all items). Inflation had already started to trend downwards, as the SNB raised rates for the first time from -0.75% to (...) Inflation already expected to [...]
19
Jun
Inflation in the eurozone is no longer falling, and is stabilizing slightly above 2%, as indicated by the latest eurozone CPI published today. Services, housing and energy have returned to reasonable levels, and no longer seem to represent an immediate risk of slippage. As a result, the ECB was able to (...) Equities to benefit [...]
13
Jun
Over the past few weeks, the economic slowdown scenario has gradually gained strength, with an already clear impact on oil prices. As negative surprises intensified in the United States, crude oil prices slid from $86 a barrel to $73 in just nine weeks. This -15% correction in the (...) Attractive opportunities on oil-related BRC Discover [...]
05
Jun
Since February 21, when we suggested a probable rise in silver towards $30 an ounce, prices have risen by +40%, outperforming gold (+20%) over the same period. The predicted catch-up thus occurred, adjusting the silver/gold price ratio from 91.5 to 76. This 17% decline in the ratio puts it back close to its ten-year average [...]
29
May
Since our change to a more favorable outlook for the industrial metals segment at the end of March, the Bloomberg Industrial Metals index has jumped +25%. Today, as China appears to be stepping up its efforts to support its real estate market, investor sentiment is improving and contributing to (...) Positive impact of China's industrial [...]
22
May
Securitized real estate in Europe is not yet benefiting from falling inflation and the potential change in ECB monetary policy, which may well have already taken place at the next ECB meeting in June. Since the collapse of real estate stocks in 2022, which saw the Epra Nareit Dev Europe index lose 50%, prices have [...]
16
May
Over the past few quarters, we have witnessed several changes in economic scenarios, which have greatly increased bond market volatility. After fearing further rate hikes up to October 2023, the last quarter saw the opposite extreme scenario, with optimism betting on (...) A new environment conducive to lenghtening durations Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
08
May
Prior to last week's sharp decline, WTI crude prices were still trading above $86 a barrel, a level similar to that seen prior to October 7, 2023. The heightened geopolitical risks associated with Israel's intervention in the Gaza Strip had not immediately caused major uncertainty in (...) Bullish recovery likely in 2nd half Discover our [...]
