Category: Weekly Analysis

Slide into recession in Q1. -20% contraction expected in Q2. Record budget for growth. Economic pick-up in Q3. Drop in corporate earnings. Excessive valuation of the Nikkei. Key points Japan’s GDP resisted well to Covid-19 in Q1 Recession is likely to take a turn for the worse in Q2 Record budget approved to support Japan’s [...]

-10% contraction expected in Q2. Economic recovery will take place in H2. SNB will not change course. Weakening of the franc. Gradual rebound of long-term rates. Reduce equity risk. Key points Switzerland’s GDP contracts more sharply in Q1 than experts expected The drop in GDP in Q1 is actually due to only two weeks of [...]

Fundamentals favourable to precious metals. Sharp rise in investment demand. Reduction of the gold/silver price ratio favourable to silver. Palladium benefits from a special situation. Key points Stock market panic temporarily weighed on precious metals in March 2020 Most key factors for precious metal prices are favourable Sharp rise in investment demand 100 million gold [...]

Renewed tensions with China inevitable. Who will be the best president to contain China? Market have not yet factored in political tensions. Key points Presidential campaign already focusing on Covid-19 crisis President Trump can no longer count on a positive economic record Time has come for a frontal attack Monetisation of debt will lend wings [...]

Beware the new wave of euphoria. Return of volatility in May. Liquidity driving the stock market recovery. Reduce risk after best month since 1987. Buy gold and silver. Key points New wave of euphoria after wave of panic Beware the return of volatility in May Stock market recovery mainly driven by massive liquidity injections Low [...]

Drastic change in health strategy. Massive backing by the Fed. Historic tax package. Slump in growth in Q2. The presidency to the Democrats? Rebound in equities. Key points Trump capitulates in the face of the magnitude of the health crisis in the US The US is the new epicentre of the crisis Alarmist estimates of [...]

Whatever the magnitude of the shock in Q1, what matters is the strength of the upswing in Q2. Sharp recovery of GDP. Inventory rebuild not to be underestimated. Rise in equities. Key points China did not just halt its economy in February, it also implemented a series of extraordinary stimulus measures What can we expect [...]

Likely recession in H1. BOE lowers rates and increases asset purchases. Swift rebound of long-term rates. New opportunities in real estate and equities. Key points Boris Johnson does a U-turn and gives up on his so-called herd immunity strategy U-turn in terms of economic policy: fiscal stimulus package BOE announces exceptional measures Two consecutive key [...]

Massive injections of liquidity. Trend reversal on long-term rates. Monetisation of new government debt. Opportunities in equities and real estate. Key points ECB announces new 750 billion PEPP to support the EU’s economy An essential action given the considerable risks of economic collapse ECB to reassure markets on quality of periphery countries’ debt Trend reversal [...]

GDP drop in Q4 2019. Likely recession in the current quarter. Exceptional new economic support measures. Prospects are now positive for the Nikkei. Key points Japan’s GDP collapsed before the coronavirus crisis Japan will almost certainly enter into recession in Q1 2020 More government economic support measures to come Loss of relevance of leading indicators [...]