Category: Weekly Analysis

More moderate increase in direct real estate prices. Economic growth boosts real estate investments. Interest rates not threatening valuations yet. Stay invested. Key points Exceptional 1st quarter for international securitised real estate Logical loss of momentum in April The decline in interest rates supported the recovery of prices Risk premiums are still favorable More moderate [...]

More time to avoid a no-deal withdrawal. Economy on the brink. Interest rates out of kilter. Resilient currency. Caution on the pound and all UK asset classes. Key points The deadline has come and gone, now what? More time to avoid a no-deal withdrawal Six-month extension until 31 October 2019 No-deal risks not factored into [...]

Growth will improve in Q2. Employment is the key variable. Rising wages will boost consumption. No Fed action. Upswing in inflation. Take profits on equities. Key points Sustained pace of growth in the US GDP up +2.2% in Q4 2018 Annual growth exceeds +3% Likely slowdown to +1.5% in Q1 2019 Growth expected to accelerate [...]

Weak GDP growth in Q4 (+0.2%). Outlook for 2019 revised downward. ECB to reinject liquidity (TLTROs). Euro resilient. Take profit on equities. Key points European growth still very weak in Q4 2018 (+0.2%) Germany solely responsible European GDP up +1.2% yoy German economy narrowly avoids entering a technical recession Leading indicators may have already seen [...]

Economic upturn in Q4. Necessary depreciation of the yen. Trade balance back in surplus. Leading indicators under pressure. BOJ remains cautious. Rising Nikkei. Key points Positive surprise with uptick in Japanese GDP in Q4 (+0.5% and +1.9% annualised) Trade surplus back on the rise (339 billion) Increase in wages not sufficient to boost consumption Leading [...]

GDP growth resumes at modest pace in Q4 (+0.2%). Interest rate trends once again atypical. New records for Swiss equities and securitised real estate. Key points Growth resumes in Q4 2018 Swiss GDP expansion of +0.2% and +2.5% (yoy) The SECO reduced its forecast for 2019 to +1.1% The manufacturing sector is the main driver [...]

Contraction over the last quarter in Germany? Leading indicators rather bleak. ECB remains confident. Policy rates unchanged. New opportunities in equities. Key points GDP growth down -0.2% in Q3 German industrial output drops -1.9% Slowdown in Europe is intensifying Five largest EU economies are weakening Leading indicators not optimistic Confidence gives way to concern Euro [...]

Fed stays the course. Record job creation and wage increases. Long-term interest rates no longer contracting. Equity markets on the upswing. Caution on earnings expectations. Key points Federal Reserve stays the course in spite of market jitters 0.25% rate hike to 2.5% Fed marginally reduces its growth outlook for 2019 to +2.5% Job market will [...]

Worrisome decline in GDP growth (+0.1%). Theresa May has no plan B. Increasing likelihood of a referendum. Intolerable costs of a “no deal”. Avoid equities and bonds. Key points Theresa May will play her last card in January Why not consider a plan B? New referendum to break the deadlock Only 34% of the British [...]

Yield curve inversion still synonymous with recession? Flattening versus inversion. Current situation and outlook. The Fed is not dogmatic. Unfounded fears. Key points Markets spooked in December by the risk of a yield curve inversion Risk-off mode prevails everywhere What yield curve inversion are we talking about exactly? Yield curve flattening rather than inverting? Is [...]