19
Jul
Another negative surprise in the United States on the inflation front, which exceeded expectations in June with an increase of +9.1% (consensus +8.8%). But the real surprise is perhaps hidden behind (...) Us inflation of +9.1% did not produce the expected reaction Discover our Investment Flash down below Read more To make sure you don't [...]
12
Jul
The last stock market week before the publication of the US inflation figures on July 13 was particularly uncertain. A few days before the announcement of the US CPI expected to rise from +8.6% in May to +8.8% for the month of June, the markets hesitated and the compasses seemed to panic (..) June inflation [...]
05
Jul
The release of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator surprisingly indicated a sharp drop in a few days in the US GDP from +0.72% on June 28 to -2.07% on July 1st. The U.S. economy would therefore have already entered a recession by June 30, according to this indicator thus upsetting current expectations of (...) Fixed [...]
29
Jun
After falling sharply from a high of $123.6 on June 14, WTI oil prices rebounded above $110 before the OPEC+ meeting, but are expected to end the month with their first monthly decline since November 2021. After a +9.5% rise in May, a stabilization or even a decline of -3 to -5% in June should [...]
29
Jun
Peak inflation is certainly close but signs are slow to appear. The loss of household purchasing power is affecting confidence and GDP growth. Recession risks are no longer to be ignored. Downward revisions of the outlook. Key points Sharp downward revision of global growth Recession risks are increasing in the US Europe is experiencing severe [...]
24
May
Interest rate markets flare up as price and inflation soar. The yield curve adjustments are already very significant. Sustained, widespread tension in European rates. New opportunities in the dollar zone in particular. Key points Net deterioration of the economic prospects 2022 Intesrest rate markets flare up as prices and inflation soar Opportunities arise for short-term [...]
11
Mar
Disappointing economic recovery in 2021. Weak Q1 2022. Government stimulus package supports consumption. Difficult environment for exports. Contained inflation. Weak yen. Opportunities for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese GDP disappointed in Q4 2021 Risk of GDP contraction in Q1 Growth prospects overestimated in 2022 Falling PMIs threaten industrial production Household consumption suffers a double whammy [...]
07
Mar
Revision of the current economic outlook. Likely increase in inflation. Significant threats to purchasing power and household consumption. In ten weeks, Swiss equities erase their 2021 gains. Key points Unsurprisingly, Swiss GDP slowed at the end of the year (+0.3%) but is still growing at +3.7%/year Q1 is expected to be a mixed bag The [...]
21
Feb
General increase in long term rates. Very high correlation. US 10-year rates break through the 2% mark. These movements are already significant. Caution is still the most appropriate approach. Key points New bullish trends for long term rates Strong correlation in the normalization phase US bonds regain attractivity at 2% Pressures on GBP bonds have [...]
14
Feb
The month of January offers new perspectives. US housing market stabilises. Europe can benefit from a repositioning of investors. UK house prices to decelarate in 2022. China’s properly market still in serious trouble. Key points International securitised real estate outperforms equity markets in 2021 but also suffers in January 2022 Positive outlook and likely catch-up [...]
