16
Aug
Technical recession confirmed in Q2. The Fed still does not believe in a recession. Strong rise in household credit. Inflation starts to decelerate. A recovery already in Q3. Stabilisation of interest rate markets. Stocks rebound. Key points US economy contracts in Q2 for the 2nd consecutive quarter and enters recession Exit from recession already possible [...]
16
Aug
The unexpected 0.10% cut in Chinese one-year rates announced by the PBoC on Monday, seven months after its previous cut, underscores the Chinese authorities' concern about the economy. By international comparison, inflation in China appears to be contained with the consumer price index rising in July to +2.7% (...) Repositioning opportunities in Chinese equities? Discover [...]
11
Aug
The European economy will avoid recession in Q3. Inflation to stabilize at +8%. Temporary consolidation of yields. Moderate appreciation of the euro. European equity risk premium touches 35%. Key points European economic growth contrasts with US recession European GDP growth of +0.7% in Q2 surprises despite German weakness Leading indicators increasingly uncertain Household confidence at [...]
10
Aug
Negative GDP in Q2. Resilient leading indicators. The BoE fears inflation at +12%. Monetary policy measured. Decreasing risks for the pound. Opportunities in bonds. Attractive relative valuations for equities. Key points UK GDP advanced by +0.8% in Q1 The 2nd quarter could be down by -0.2 Surprising resilience of leading indicators in Q2 Unemployment rate [...]
09
Aug
The recession scenario has spread quite widely in the financial markets for several months, pushing commodity prices down significantly. Oil prices have thus fallen by almost -30% since their double top in March and June above $120/b. The US WTI price ($87.8/bbl) is now close to its October 2021 level again and is trading almost [...]
05
Aug
New contraction in Q2?. Leading indicators not encouraging. Domestic consumption remains weak. Imports +46%. Exports +19%. Low inflation in international comparison. Status quo at the BoJ. Opportunities in stocks. Key points Is a new contraction of GDP in Q2 possible ? Growth outlook revised downward Leading indicators point to further limited growth in Q3 Households [...]
03
Aug
July proved to be an excellent month for most financial assets, but clearly not for hedge funds (+0.5%), which largely underperformed during this period of recovery in international equities (+7.9%), real estate (+6.9%), private equity (+17.9%) and bonds (+2.1%). Overall, hedge funds do not seem to have anticipated the stock market recovery short covering the [...]
02
Aug
Energy and commodity prices are finally declining. Inflation may have peaked. Recession risks outweigh inflation fears. The bearish scenario is widely shared. Markets likely to rebound in Q3. Key points Recession risk intensify Consumption and production are adjusting Inflation persists but will decline in the second half The recent fall in commodity prices is reducing [...]
29
Jul
Domestic demand is supporting growth. Strong franc dampens inflationary momentum. Unexpected change in monetary policy by the SNB. Extreme volatility in the capital market. A window of opportunity opens for Swiss stocks. Key points Swiss economy resists headwinds Public and private consumption remain the main drivers of the Swiss economy Leading indicators continue to plummet [...]
27
Jul
On August 10, US inflation for July will be published and will certainly show a much-awaited inflection point after the +9.1% figure for the previous month, in a context of a notable drop in commodity prices since June 8 (-14.6% S&PGSI Commodity Index). While a decline in inflationary pressures is likely, it will not challenge [...]
