Weekly analysis

Recovery will only get under way in Q2. High potential for recovery of Japanese exports. Consumption may strengthen significantly. Weakness of the yen is the only option. Upward revision of corporate profits. Key points Double-digit growth in Q4 points to positive momentum for 2021 Increase in consumption and exports Better outlook for Q2 Leading indicators [...]

Switzerland is emerging from the crisis in a position of strength. GDP is already benefiting from Asia’s recovery. Swiss franc depreciation is gaining momentum. SNB to post extraordinary profits in 2021. The bond market is gone. Caution on equities. Key points Swiss GDP growth of +0.3% in Q4 2020 is higher than expected Domestic demand [...]

Economic stimulus plans also favourable to real estate. The health crisis will not have a profound effect on yields. Real estate remains an effective hedge against a resumption of inflation. Time to invest. Key points Volatility in January did not spare international securitised real estate Alignment of regional and national economic cycles favourable to real [...]

A Probable rebound for the long-term rates in 2021. Increase in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. market. Inflationary risks underestimated. Beware of risk premiums and durations. Key points A bearish beginning of the year for the interest rate markets under the influence of the US Treasury Unanticipated but probable rebound in long-term rates in [...]

EU finally to release 750 bn in recovery spending. GDP likely to contract in Q4. ECB to increase its support programmes. Fall in risk premiums reaches its limits. Risks return to the markets. Key points End of 1st element of suspense: EU will finally be able to distribute 750 billion in Covid relief End of [...]

Economic momentum slows. Weakened employment and consumption. Priority to growth. Unavoidable continuation of deficit monetisation. Rising earnings for equities. Key points GDP momentum expected to slow sharply in Q4 Employment remains fragile and could penalise consumption. The four priorities of the new US president Rising government deficit and risks of structural depreciation of the US [...]

Growth above expectations. Solid domestic demand. Positive outlook for 2021. The franc still seems overvalued. A digital Swiss franc? Consolidation of Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP surged by +7.2% in Q3, almost making up for the -8.6% drop at the end of June Domestic demand is surprisingly strong Switzerland has better been able to [...]

Probable contraction of -2.5% in Q4. Increasing economic risks at the beginning of 2021. Limited room for manoeuvre for the BoE. Weak pound sterling. FTSE 100 trading at 17% discount. Key points A few more days to avoid a disastrous no-deal Brexit for the British Temporary rebound in GDP in Q3 Probable contraction of -2.5% [...]

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case scenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to [...]

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case scenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to [...]