Weekly analysis

Renewed tensions with China inevitable. Who will be the best president to contain China? Market have not yet factored in political tensions. Key points Presidential campaign already focusing on Covid-19 crisis President Trump can no longer count on a positive economic record Time has come for a frontal attack Monetisation of debt will lend wings [...]

Beware the new wave of euphoria. Return of volatility in May. Liquidity driving the stock market recovery. Reduce risk after best month since 1987. Buy gold and silver. Key points New wave of euphoria after wave of panic Beware the return of volatility in May Stock market recovery mainly driven by massive liquidity injections Low [...]

Drastic change in health strategy. Massive backing by the Fed. Historic tax package. Slump in growth in Q2. The presidency to the Democrats? Rebound in equities. Key points Trump capitulates in the face of the magnitude of the health crisis in the US The US is the new epicentre of the crisis Alarmist estimates of [...]

Whatever the magnitude of the shock in Q1, what matters is the strength of the upswing in Q2. Sharp recovery of GDP. Inventory rebuild not to be underestimated. Rise in equities. Key points China did not just halt its economy in February, it also implemented a series of extraordinary stimulus measures What can we expect [...]

Likely recession in H1. BOE lowers rates and increases asset purchases. Swift rebound of long-term rates. New opportunities in real estate and equities. Key points Boris Johnson does a U-turn and gives up on his so-called herd immunity strategy U-turn in terms of economic policy: fiscal stimulus package BOE announces exceptional measures Two consecutive key [...]

Massive injections of liquidity. Trend reversal on long-term rates. Monetisation of new government debt. Opportunities in equities and real estate. Key points ECB announces new 750 billion PEPP to support the EU’s economy An essential action given the considerable risks of economic collapse ECB to reassure markets on quality of periphery countries’ debt Trend reversal [...]

GDP drop in Q4 2019. Likely recession in the current quarter. Exceptional new economic support measures. Prospects are now positive for the Nikkei. Key points Japan’s GDP collapsed before the coronavirus crisis Japan will almost certainly enter into recession in Q1 2020 More government economic support measures to come Loss of relevance of leading indicators [...]

The Covid-19 threat was totally disregarded. Only active asset management can defend against a market shock. Is Covid-19 a lasting threat? What’s the likelihood of a rapid recovery? Key points A genuine threat, albeit completely ignored for close to two months Only active and rational asset management can defend against a market shock Covid-19 is [...]

Covid-19 will also affect Switzerland’s GDP. As expected, the franc is in high demand in the short term. The growth outlook has deteriorated. Panic is finally impacting equities. Key points +0.3% growth in Switzerland in Q4 raised hopes of a good start to 2020 Growth was still driven by private and public consumption in Q4 [...]

400 billion in cash injections in Q4. Expansion or status quo in 2020? High earnings expectations. Extreme equity valuations. More risks than opportunities. Key points Massive and questionable cash injections in Q4 400 billion in new liquidity Why has the Fed intervened so massively? Dangerous interdependency between markets and monetary policy Financial markets gamble on [...]