14
Oct
Europe still avoids recession. Confidence at its lowest. Inflation reaches +10%. The ECB follows a more moderate strategy. Yield curves still positive. Excessive fall in European real estate. Equity risk premium of 45%. Key points Can Europe repeat its relative performance in Q3 and avoid a decline in GDP? Still uncertain outlook for Q4 Leading [...]
12
Oct
European gas prices have fallen by -54% since their peak in August and are now at their lowest level since July. LNG imports into Europe have hit their highest level since 2016 and milder temperatures expected in the coming weeks are supporting the trend. It is also reinforced by (...) Opportunity to reposition on alternative [...]
10
Oct
New government already discredited. Massive rate rise. Risk of bankruptcy of UK pension funds. Fall of the pound.180 degree turn in monetary policy. Stability of real estate prices. Limited shock to equities. Key points The new British government announces a "mini-budget" that causes chaos UK economy still in overdrive in Q3? Leading indicators still indecisive [...]
05
Oct
Positive economic situation in Japan. Mixed leading indicators. Weak yen pushes inflation up. Monetary policy still expansionary. Interest-free bond yields. Weakening outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Very positive revision of Japanese GDP in Q2 (+3.5%) Less favourable outlook for the current quarter Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Surprising increase in retail sales in a [...]
05
Oct
The acceleration in the rise of dollar yields and, in particular, the brief rise in long rates above the 4% ten-year threshold at the end of September, has already partly deflated at the beginning of this week. In just a few days, the decline in yields has already been very sensitive. Five-year Treasury yields recorded [...]
29
Sep
The Swiss economy is resisting the risks of recession. The SNB takes a harder line. Inflation likely to stabilise. Yield spreads favorable to the euro. Attractive yields on bonds. Likely easing of interest rates positive for equities. Key points The Swiss economy continues to show its resilience Private consumption and investment in capital goods support [...]
28
Sep
Posted by BBGI Group
In Uncategorized
The acceleration of the rise in US 10-year Treasury yields above 3.75% in recent days has further strengthened the dollar, which has now appreciated by 18% against all currencies this year. The appreciation of the dollar is weighing notably on the price of crude oil, which fell by -6% last week and down -35% since [...]
21
Sep
Securitized real estate has reacted strongly to the rise in interest rates and mortgage costs observed in recent months in most countries. The -25% drop in the global EPRA Nareit Developped index (USD) has thus erased the valuation excesses of the year 2021 and is now -7% below its average value over the last ten [...]
14
Sep
The publication of the inflation figures for August did not confirm the hopes of investors who were hoping for a further decline in prices. The fall in commodity prices was insufficient to compensate for the persistent pressure on rents and food prices. The Federal Reserve should therefore logically maintain its tightening monetary policy as expected [...]
13
Sep
The shock of Russia and Ukraine going to war will have had a profound effect on the European energy sector. Governments are increasing investment and energy independence is moving up the priority list. Strong growth potential for the sector in the coming years. Key points An energy market under increasing tension In-deep reorganisation of the [...]
