18
Jun
The Fed will not derail a booming economy
Acceleration in GDP growth in Q2 to +3.4%. Revision of outlook for GDP and inflation. Contraction in margins, profits and multiples. Remain cautious on the S&P 500.
Key points
- US Federal Reserve unsurprisingly raises key rates by +0.25%
- Seventh hike since 2015
- The Fed’s latest message is clear, monetary policy will not derail a booming economy
- US Fed raises GDP growth prospects (+2.8%)
- Serenity at the Fed and in the financial markets?
- Inevitable deceleration in growth
- Reassessing the risks of a trade war
- Increases in wages, inflation and interest rates
- Inflation running well above 2%
- Stabilisation of long-term rates at close to 3%
- Dollar finally on the rise
- Trade weighted dollar rises +7%
- Contraction in margins a threat to the S&P500
- Rebound in May and June increases valuation levels to 17.4x earnings
