The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting the fertilizer market. 30% of global demand is blocked. The impact is greater than that on the energy sector. This is having a direct effect on fertilizer prices and agricultural commodity prices. Inflation is set to rise sharply in the second half of the year.

Key points

• Global fertilizer market held hostage by the Strait of Hormuz
• Significant asymmetry in dependencies (energy vs. fertilizers)
• Vulnerability of fertilizer supplies
• Structure of the global supply chain
• Pre-crisis overview (2025 – early 2026)
• The 2026 shock: contagion mechanisms
• Toward a reshaping of production chains
• Stock market behavior and macroeconomic risks
• Forecasts and risks for the 2026 harvests
• Inevitable return of inflation in H2

Discover an extract from our weekly analysis below:

Full version