Category: Weekly Analysis

Peak inflation is certainly close but signs are slow to appear. The loss of household purchasing power is affecting confidence and GDP growth. Recession risks are no longer to be ignored. Downward revisions of the outlook. Key points Sharp downward revision of global growth Recession risks are increasing in the US Europe is experiencing severe [...]

Interest rate markets flare up as price and inflation soar. The yield curve adjustments are already very significant. Sustained, widespread tension in European rates. New opportunities in the dollar zone in particular. Key points Net deterioration of the economic prospects 2022 Intesrest rate markets flare up as prices and inflation soar Opportunities arise for short-term [...]

Disappointing economic recovery in 2021. Weak Q1 2022. Government stimulus package supports consumption. Difficult environment for exports. Contained inflation. Weak yen. Opportunities for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese GDP disappointed in Q4 2021 Risk of GDP contraction in Q1 Growth prospects overestimated in 2022 Falling PMIs threaten industrial production Household consumption suffers a double whammy [...]

Revision of the current economic outlook. Likely increase in inflation. Significant threats to purchasing power and household consumption. In ten weeks, Swiss equities erase their 2021 gains. Key points Unsurprisingly, Swiss GDP slowed at the end of the year (+0.3%) but is still growing at +3.7%/year Q1 is expected to be a mixed bag The [...]

General increase in long term rates. Very high correlation. US 10-year rates break through the 2% mark. These movements are already significant. Caution is still the most appropriate approach. Key points New bullish trends for long term rates Strong correlation in the normalization phase US bonds regain attractivity at 2% Pressures on GBP bonds have [...]

The month of January offers new perspectives. US housing market stabilises. Europe can benefit from a repositioning of investors. UK house prices to decelarate in 2022. China’s properly market still in serious trouble. Key points International securitised real estate outperforms equity markets in 2021 but also suffers in January 2022 Positive outlook and likely catch-up [...]

The yield curve has started to steepen. Rising yields for dollar bonds. Long-term yields also starting to rise in Europe. Trend reversal in the sterling bond market. Key points The yield curve has started to steepen. Rising yields for dollar bonds. Long-term yields also starting to rise in Europe. Trend reversal in the sterling bond [...]

Energy prices literally explode in Q3 2021. Inventory reductions driven by rising global demand. Indirect effects of the energy transition on the energy market. Risk of recession after a supply shock? Key points Energy prices literally explode in Q3 2021 Inventory reductions driven by rising global demand OPEC + production will grow only very slowly [...]

The Swiss economy is in top form. Growth figures leading to trend reversal in bond markets. The SNB is still not afraid of inflation. Significant correction underway in equity markets. Key points Swiss GDP grows +1.8% in Q2 2021 and +7.7% year-on-year Strong comeback of domestic demand Leading indicators support a solid growth outlook Manufacturing [...]

Equity markets are threatened by rising interest rates following the historic rebound in inflation. Trend change in the "Growth" vs "Value" match. Complicated outlook for US equities. European equities are already approaching their 2021 targets. Key points Rising US inflation and long rates threaten equity markets Trend change in the "Growth" vs "Value" match Complicated [...]