Category: Weekly Analysis

Technical recession confirmed in Q2. The Fed still does not believe in a recession. Strong rise in household credit. Inflation starts to decelerate. A recovery already in Q3. Stabilisation of interest rate markets. Stocks rebound. Key points US economy contracts in Q2 for the 2nd consecutive quarter and enters recession Exit from recession already possible [...]

The European economy will avoid recession in Q3. Inflation to stabilize at +8%. Temporary consolidation of yields. Moderate appreciation of the euro. European equity risk premium touches 35%. Key points European economic growth contrasts with US recession European GDP growth of +0.7% in Q2 surprises despite German weakness Leading indicators increasingly uncertain Household confidence at [...]

Negative GDP in Q2. Resilient leading indicators. The BoE fears inflation at +12%. Monetary policy measured. Decreasing risks for the pound. Opportunities in bonds. Attractive relative valuations for equities. Key points UK GDP advanced by +0.8% in Q1 The 2nd quarter could be down by -0.2 Surprising resilience of leading indicators in Q2 Unemployment rate [...]

New contraction in Q2?. Leading indicators not encouraging. Domestic consumption remains weak. Imports +46%. Exports +19%. Low inflation in international comparison. Status quo at the BoJ. Opportunities in stocks. Key points Is a new contraction of GDP in Q2 possible ? Growth outlook revised downward Leading indicators point to further limited growth in Q3 Households [...]

Energy and commodity prices are finally declining. Inflation may have peaked. Recession risks outweigh inflation fears. The bearish scenario is widely shared. Markets likely to rebound in Q3. Key points Recession risk intensify Consumption and production are adjusting Inflation persists but will decline in the second half The recent fall in commodity prices is reducing [...]

Domestic demand is supporting growth. Strong franc dampens inflationary momentum. Unexpected change in monetary policy by the SNB. Extreme volatility in the capital market. A window of opportunity opens for Swiss stocks. Key points Swiss economy resists headwinds Public and private consumption remain the main drivers of the Swiss economy Leading indicators continue to plummet [...]

Peak inflation is certainly close but signs are slow to appear. The loss of household purchasing power is affecting confidence and GDP growth. Recession risks are no longer to be ignored. Downward revisions of the outlook. Key points Sharp downward revision of global growth Recession risks are increasing in the US Europe is experiencing severe [...]

Interest rate markets flare up as price and inflation soar. The yield curve adjustments are already very significant. Sustained, widespread tension in European rates. New opportunities in the dollar zone in particular. Key points Net deterioration of the economic prospects 2022 Intesrest rate markets flare up as prices and inflation soar Opportunities arise for short-term [...]

Disappointing economic recovery in 2021. Weak Q1 2022. Government stimulus package supports consumption. Difficult environment for exports. Contained inflation. Weak yen. Opportunities for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese GDP disappointed in Q4 2021 Risk of GDP contraction in Q1 Growth prospects overestimated in 2022 Falling PMIs threaten industrial production Household consumption suffers a double whammy [...]

Revision of the current economic outlook. Likely increase in inflation. Significant threats to purchasing power and household consumption. In ten weeks, Swiss equities erase their 2021 gains. Key points Unsurprisingly, Swiss GDP slowed at the end of the year (+0.3%) but is still growing at +3.7%/year Q1 is expected to be a mixed bag The [...]