Category: Weekly Analysis

Growth above expectations. Solid domestic demand. Positive outlook for 2021. The franc still seems overvalued. A digital Swiss franc? Consolidation of Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP surged by +7.2% in Q3, almost making up for the -8.6% drop at the end of June Domestic demand is surprisingly strong Switzerland has better been able to [...]

Probable contraction of -2.5% in Q4. Increasing economic risks at the beginning of 2021. Limited room for manoeuvre for the BoE. Weak pound sterling. FTSE 100 trading at 17% discount. Key points A few more days to avoid a disastrous no-deal Brexit for the British Temporary rebound in GDP in Q3 Probable contraction of -2.5% [...]

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case scenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to [...]

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case scenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to [...]

The health crisis is making a comeback in Europe. The ECB is monetising public and private debt. Capital markets are under control. The agreement of 21 July strengthens the euro. Significant downside risks for equities. Key points Economic downturn in the European Union Germany shores up European growth EU rules on public debt will have [...]

Overly optimistic expectations for US GDP. Growth likely to slow in Q4. Rising budget deficit. Massive and unconditional support from the Fed. High risks for equities. Key points Second wave of Covid-19 could slow US economic recovery Over-optimistic expectations for US GDP? US elections will reinforce the new fiscal paradigm Rising taxes threaten financial markets [...]

Sharper contraction of GDP (-7.9%) and corporate profits (-46%) in Q2. GDP expected to recover in Q3. Profit growth of +21% in 2021. Excessive valuation of the Nikkei. Key points The change in prime minister will have no influence on Japan’s economic policy Japan’s GDP contracted more sharply than expected in Q2 2020 The Japanese [...]

GDP is expected to fall by -32% in Q2, will not return to 2019 levels before 2022. The Fed systematises yield curve control. End of interest rate volatility. Complacency on equities. Key points Annualised GDP contraction of -32% in Q2? GDP contraction of -5.5% in 2020 followed by a +3.9% recovery in 2021 Sharp rise [...]

GDP is expected to fall by -32% in Q2, will not return to 2019 levels before 2022. The Fed systematises yield curve control. End of interest rate volatility. Complacency on equities. Key points Annualised GDP contraction of -32% in Q2? GDP contraction of -5.5% in 2020 followed by a +3.9% recovery in 2021 Sharp rise [...]

ECB injects EUR 1,350 billion. Banks borrow EUR 1,300 billion at negative yields. Debt pooling and monetisation are moving forward. Recovery plan favourable to the euro. Key points ECB is on every front ECB lends banks an additional 1,300 billion at negative yields ECB underwrites the fiscal expansion of European states An 1,800 billion recovery [...]