Category: Weekly Analysis

The appreciation of the dollar and high yields disqualify other assets. Rising rates are proving to be a systemic threat. Default risks increase. Dollar liquidity declines. The Fed must change its policy. Key points Long live the US dollar! The appreciation of the dollar disqualifies other assets A side note on money creation and debt [...]

Europe still avoids recession. Confidence at its lowest. Inflation reaches +10%. The ECB follows a more moderate strategy. Yield curves still positive. Excessive fall in European real estate. Equity risk premium of 45%. Key points Can Europe repeat its relative performance in Q3 and avoid a decline in GDP? Still uncertain outlook for Q4 Leading [...]

New government already discredited. Massive rate rise. Risk of bankruptcy of UK pension funds. Fall of the pound.180 degree turn in monetary policy. Stability of real estate prices. Limited shock to equities. Key points The new British government announces a "mini-budget" that causes chaos UK economy still in overdrive in Q3? Leading indicators still indecisive [...]

Positive economic situation in Japan. Mixed leading indicators. Weak yen pushes inflation up. Monetary policy still expansionary. Interest-free bond yields. Weakening outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Very positive revision of Japanese GDP in Q2 (+3.5%) Less favourable outlook for the current quarter Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Surprising increase in retail sales in a [...]

The Swiss economy is resisting the risks of recession. The SNB takes a harder line. Inflation likely to stabilise. Yield spreads favorable to the euro. Attractive yields on bonds. Likely easing of interest rates positive for equities. Key points The Swiss economy continues to show its resilience Private consumption and investment in capital goods support [...]

The shock of Russia and Ukraine going to war will have had a profound effect on the European energy sector. Governments are increasing investment and energy independence is moving up the priority list. Strong growth potential for the sector in the coming years. Key points An energy market under increasing tension In-deep reorganisation of the [...]

Technical recession confirmed in Q2. The Fed still does not believe in a recession. Strong rise in household credit. Inflation starts to decelerate. A recovery already in Q3. Stabilisation of interest rate markets. Stocks rebound. Key points US economy contracts in Q2 for the 2nd consecutive quarter and enters recession Exit from recession already possible [...]

The European economy will avoid recession in Q3. Inflation to stabilize at +8%. Temporary consolidation of yields. Moderate appreciation of the euro. European equity risk premium touches 35%. Key points European economic growth contrasts with US recession European GDP growth of +0.7% in Q2 surprises despite German weakness Leading indicators increasingly uncertain Household confidence at [...]

Negative GDP in Q2. Resilient leading indicators. The BoE fears inflation at +12%. Monetary policy measured. Decreasing risks for the pound. Opportunities in bonds. Attractive relative valuations for equities. Key points UK GDP advanced by +0.8% in Q1 The 2nd quarter could be down by -0.2 Surprising resilience of leading indicators in Q2 Unemployment rate [...]

New contraction in Q2?. Leading indicators not encouraging. Domestic consumption remains weak. Imports +46%. Exports +19%. Low inflation in international comparison. Status quo at the BoJ. Opportunities in stocks. Key points Is a new contraction of GDP in Q2 possible ? Growth outlook revised downward Leading indicators point to further limited growth in Q3 Households [...]