Category: Weekly Analysis

Recession likely in early 2023 in Europe. Confidence still at half mast. First sign of falling inflation. ECB becomes more aggressive. The rise in yields is not over. Rise in the euro. Attractive PE for equities. Key points The European economy is resilient and still not sliding into the predicted recession Recession likely between Q4 [...]

Possible recession in the first half of 2023 in the UK. Decline in capital market tensions. New regime for the BoE. Exit from the crisis for the pound sterling. Expected correction in real estate. Positive conditions for equities. Key points The UK economy is resisting inflationary pressures and rising interest rates Negative GDP to end [...]

Economic downturn. Leading indicators still mixed. Weak consumer confidence. Inflation at its highest. Yen stabilises. Policy monetary policy still expansionary. Moderate positive outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese economy shrinks by 0.8% in Q3 Outlook for Q4 still gloomy Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Consumer confidence is at an all-time low Trade deficit remains [...]

The Swiss economy is slowing down. Risk of recession. Signs of stabilisation of inflation. Monetary policy to be tightened soon. Yield spreads favourable to the Euro. Yields stabilising. Still positive outlook for equities. Key points Swiss economy slows down in Q3 Domestic demand provides greater support to GDP Leading indicators still falling Inflation stabilisation becomes [...]

Temporary GDP growth in Q3. Leading indicators point to a slowdown. Consumption is at risk. New inflation regime. The Fed must adjust its action. The dollar is losing momentum. A "risk on" mode is setting in. Key points Temporary exit from recession expected in Q3 "Hard landing" still possible in the US Leading indicators fall [...]

The appreciation of the dollar and high yields disqualify other assets. Rising rates are proving to be a systemic threat. Default risks increase. Dollar liquidity declines. The Fed must change its policy. Key points Long live the US dollar! The appreciation of the dollar disqualifies other assets A side note on money creation and debt [...]

Europe still avoids recession. Confidence at its lowest. Inflation reaches +10%. The ECB follows a more moderate strategy. Yield curves still positive. Excessive fall in European real estate. Equity risk premium of 45%. Key points Can Europe repeat its relative performance in Q3 and avoid a decline in GDP? Still uncertain outlook for Q4 Leading [...]

New government already discredited. Massive rate rise. Risk of bankruptcy of UK pension funds. Fall of the pound.180 degree turn in monetary policy. Stability of real estate prices. Limited shock to equities. Key points The new British government announces a "mini-budget" that causes chaos UK economy still in overdrive in Q3? Leading indicators still indecisive [...]

Positive economic situation in Japan. Mixed leading indicators. Weak yen pushes inflation up. Monetary policy still expansionary. Interest-free bond yields. Weakening outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Very positive revision of Japanese GDP in Q2 (+3.5%) Less favourable outlook for the current quarter Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Surprising increase in retail sales in a [...]

The Swiss economy is resisting the risks of recession. The SNB takes a harder line. Inflation likely to stabilise. Yield spreads favorable to the euro. Attractive yields on bonds. Likely easing of interest rates positive for equities. Key points The Swiss economy continues to show its resilience Private consumption and investment in capital goods support [...]