Category: Weekly Analysis

Energy prices literally explode in Q3 2021. Inventory reductions driven by rising global demand. Indirect effects of the energy transition on the energy market. Risk of recession after a supply shock? Key points Energy prices literally explode in Q3 2021 Inventory reductions driven by rising global demand OPEC + production will grow only very slowly [...]

The Swiss economy is in top form. Growth figures leading to trend reversal in bond markets. The SNB is still not afraid of inflation. Significant correction underway in equity markets. Key points Swiss GDP grows +1.8% in Q2 2021 and +7.7% year-on-year Strong comeback of domestic demand Leading indicators support a solid growth outlook Manufacturing [...]

Equity markets are threatened by rising interest rates following the historic rebound in inflation. Trend change in the "Growth" vs "Value" match. Complicated outlook for US equities. European equities are already approaching their 2021 targets. Key points Rising US inflation and long rates threaten equity markets Trend change in the "Growth" vs "Value" match Complicated [...]

International real estate goes toe to toe with equities. Vaccination campaigns offer new perspectives. Economic stimulus packages also benefit real estate. Key points International real estate goes toe to toe with equities Vaccination campaigns offer new perspectives The long-term effects of the pandemic on international real estate markets should be kept in perspective Economic stimulus packages [...]

Long-term interest rates will gradually rise across the board. Renewed attractiveness of dollar bonds. Investment strategy focused on USD, CAD, and AUD markets Key points Long-term interest rates will gradually rise across the board Renewed attractiveness of dollar bonds New upward trend in interest rates temporarily curbed by ECB action Trend reversal in interest rate [...]

An incredible 2020 for commodities. Focus on the last two super cycles for commodities. Rapid inventory reduction. Four main factors supporting increased demand. Key points An incredible 2020 for commodities Focus on the last two commodities super cycles Are we heading for a new positive commodities super cycle? Rapid inventory reduction Four main factors supporting [...]

Acceleration of growth in Q2 (+5.6%). GDP to increase by +7% in 2021. Effective vaccination campaign. Massive economic support. Positive wealth effect. Excess savings. Increases in inflation, long-term rates and the dollar. Key points Transition in Q1 to visible acceleration of growth already in Q2 2021 to set record with GDP growth close to +7% [...]

GDP contraction of -1.5% in Q1. Outlook reduced to +4% for the year. ECB accelerates its PEPP and could inject 60 bn euros/month. PMIs are optimistic. Interest rate increases temporarily curbed. Weakening euro. Key points European GDP expected to fall by a further -1.5% in Q1 The glaring failure of the vaccination campaigns calls for [...]

UK GDP contracted by -2.9% in January. Exports to the EU plunged by -40.7%. Economic recovery postponed to Q2. Rising long-term interest rates and the prospect of an end to the lockdown support the pound. Key points UK GDP shrinks by -2.9% in January Historic fall in British exports Border controls and breach of protocol [...]

Recovery will only get under way in Q2. High potential for recovery of Japanese exports. Consumption may strengthen significantly. Weakness of the yen is the only option. Upward revision of corporate profits. Key points Double-digit growth in Q4 points to positive momentum for 2021 Increase in consumption and exports Better outlook for Q2 Leading indicators [...]