Category: Weekly Analysis

Japan is in recession. GDP may improve in Q3. Export rebound. Temporary upturn in inflation. Household confidence at half-mast. Yen at lowest level since 1986. Outlook for Nikkei still positive. Key points Further contraction of the Japanese economy Improvement possible in Q3 Further hesitation in leading indicators Household consumption remains subdued Falling yen boosts imported [...]

Crude oil prices could rise by +10% to +15% in 2024. Potential rebound in natural gas prices from $1.5 to $2.5 MMBtu. Target of $32 to $35 per ounce for silver not unrealistic. Promising trend reversal for industrial metals. Key points Further rise in commodity prices in 2024 Crude oil prices could rise by +10% [...]

Resilient economic momentum. Encouraging leading indicators. Recession risks averted. Inflation close to Fed target. 1st rate cut in May. Positive environment for USD assets. Beware of high PEs. USD winner. Key points US economy maintains good momentum at start of 2024 No recession, but a gradual slowdown Steady improvement in leading indicators Declining tension in [...]

GDP stagnates in early 2024. Stagflation takes hold despite net decline in inflation. Less restrictive monetary policy from June. Long rates may fall by 50 bps. Positive outlook for the euro, securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP stagnates Stagflation sets in early 2024 Leading indicators remain highly uncertain Slight improvement in confidence [...]

A recession more akin to a slowdown. Economic recovery possible in the 1st half of the year. Rapid fall in inflation. Key interest rates to be cut soon. Positive outlook for bonds, real estate and equities. Key points The UK has finally entered recession The start of 2024 could already be more positive Slight improvement [...]

Resilient economy in early 2024. Inflation under control. Monetary easing imminent. Yield and inflation differentials unfavorable to the franc. Low potential for bond markets. Better outlook for SMI. Key points Swiss economy surprisingly resilient Swiss exports penalized by strong franc Leading indicators remain uninspiring Swiss inflation is now close to +1% SNB may lower rates [...]

Japan is in recession. Another difficult start to 2024. Inflation finally falls. No solution for the Japanese currency. Monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Nikkei attacks the all-time record set in 1989. Key points Q4 GDP confirms our forecast of a moderate recession in Japan at the end of 2023 Outlook for Q1 2024 remains [...]

Foundations of central bank creation. The concept of decision-making independence. Roles, missions and objectives. Appointments linked to political power. Who are the shareholders? Who benefits from financial results? Real independence? Key points Who owns the central banks whose monetary policies guide our economies? Reminder of the foundations of central bank creation and the concept of [...]

Economic slowdown rather than recession. Inflation will reach the +2% target in Q2 2024. The Fed will have to cut rates. Continued readjustment of yield curves. The dollar under pressure. Positive outlook for equities. Key points Significant slowdown after an exceptional 3rd quarter Declining momentum raises fears of recession Leading indicators do not point to [...]

Entry into recession in Q4. Inflation declines faster than expected. New paradigm for ECB policy and euro bond yields. Favourable environment for securitized real estate and equities. Key points Eurozone GDP finally slips into negative territory in Q3 Technical recession expected in Q4 2023 Leading indicators point to a fall in activity Confidence indices stabilize [...]