Category: Weekly Analysis

Reduced risk of recession. Wages support purchasing power. Inflation declining too slowly. Relaunch of rate hike cycle. Capital and real estate markets in disarray. Favorable valuations for equities. Key points British economy still flirting with recession Difficult 2nd quarter ahead Further worrying declines in leading indicators Nominal wages continue to rise Household confidence strengthens gradually [...]

0.7% acceleration in Japanese GDP. Household confidence remains hesitant. Trade deficit down 66%. Inflation falls to +3.2%. Expansive monetary policy. Nikkei at 33-year high. Key points Japanese economy recovers strongly in Q1, growing more strongly than expected (+0.7%) Slower growth in Q2 Slightly more encouraging leading indicators Slight improvement in consumer confidence Trade deficit decreases [...]

Good economic growth in Q1 (+0.5%). Inflation (+1.9%) in sharp decline and already below SNB target. End of rate hike cycle in sight. Opportunities in bond markets. Bullish revival for equities. Key points Swiss economy surprises on the upside with +0.5% GDP growth in Q1 Domestic demand and exports underpin GDP Leading indicators still very [...]

Securitized real estate is too severely affected by rising rates. Discounts in Europe and the UK. Attractive absolute returns. Appealing risk premiums in Switzerland. Historical premiums and discounts for Swiss assets. Key points Return of volatility in securitized real estate The correction in securitized real estate is an opportunity European securitized real estate unfairly penalized [...]

The first signs of the end of petrodollars and the beginning of de-dollarization. China unites the discontented and proposes an alternative to the dollar. Petrodollars, petroyuans and the new BRICS currency. 4 major consequences of de-dollarization. Key points How the dollar becomes THE international currency 50 years of dollar hegemony Emergence of petrodollars in the [...]

Slower GDP growth in Q1. A soft landing is emerging. Decline in leading indicators. Employment is finally deteriorating. Consumption expected to fall. Inflation will slip below 5%. The Fed will pause. Weakening of the dollar. Opportunities in the capital markets. Positive outlook for equities. Key points A solid year-end will give way to a soft [...]

Recession likely in 2023. ECB rate target at 4%. Decorrelation of monetary policies. Bullish recovery of domestic yields. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations of securitized real estate and equities. Key points European economy falters but still avoids a recession in Q4 2022 Limited economic contraction in the first half of the year Leading indicators [...]

Recession in 2023. A resilient 1st quarter. Temporary recovery in household confidence. Inflation not under control. BoE on pause. Bond yields adjust. Real estate succumbs. Equities still attractive Key points Uk economy moves closer to a recession Q1 2023 could still be resilient Leading indicators still mixed Job market still resilient Household confidence has improved [...]

The bankruptcy of the SVB has various consequences. The systemic risk seems to be ruled out by central banks. CS is a global systemic bank. SNB support was expected. A likely new paradigm for rates. Key points Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bankruptcy will affect US monetary policy The next US rate hike could be the [...]

Growth at a standstill in Q4. Mixed leading indicators. Slight improvement in consumer confidence. Trade deficit narrowed. Inflation down. Expansionary monetary policy. Moderate outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Japan's economy stalled in Q4 (9%) Barely positive outlook for Q1 2023 GDP growth up +1% in 2023 Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Weak improvement in [...]