Weekly analysis

American politics in turmoil again. What’s happening with Trump’s tax plan? Increased uncertainty and risk of disappointment. Profit taking is vital. Buy gold! Key points American politics in turmoil again, could trigger a sudden shift in risk perception Increasingly unpredictable outlook for Donald Trump’s economic programme Expecting a less ambitious tax plan US companies will [...]

Normalisation of US monetary policy is intensifying. Some correlation on rate markets once again. Commodities and employment are propping up inflation. Key points 2017 will mark the end of global quantitative easing Normalisation of monetary policy is confirmed with the Fed’s 3rd rate rise Next steps: the ECB, BoJ, and PBOC will reduce liquidity injections [...]

Growth is accelerating in the Eurozone. The ECB will soon be in tapering mode. Negative real terms interest rates. Asset reallocation favors equities and real estate. Key points The economic dynamic in the Eurozone picked up the pace in the 1st quarter GDP could hit +0.6% Change in perception of growth prospects in the Eurozone [...]

Budgetary deficit and debt set to increase. The rise in inflation and rates will continue. Positive prospects for the dollar. The increase in profits is propping up the S&P 500. Key points The US treasury is adopting measures to remain below the US $20 trillion debt threshold The CBO estimates that US public debt will [...]

PMI and industrial production rising. Inflation normalising. Equity market valuations remain attractive. What are the risks? Key points The American growth engine is driving advances in the rest of the world Leading indicators and industrial production are promising Inflation is virtually under control in Russia and Brazil, allowing financing conditions to ease The positive commodities [...]

Likely easing of credit standards could counter rising interest rates. Investment funds’ high premiums should be put into perspective. Key points Don’t overestimate the ‘interest rate’ factor: other elements must be considered Supply remains limited: scarcely 40,000 units built in Switzerland in 2016 The February 9 vote will not change the demographic outlook overall; an [...]

Strong producer price growth (+7.8%). China will export inflation. Positive GDP outlook. Surge in external demand. Increase in profits in China in 2017. Key points Growth in China’s PPI (+7.8%) reinforces global inflation prospects Increase in export prices of +6.3% Li Keqiang announces growth target for 2017 of 6.5% A positive surprise for China’s GDP [...]

Japan is benefitting from the global recovery. The forecast weakness of the yen could last. Exports are recovering. Weak domestic demand. Positive prospects for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese GDP moved up +0.3% in 4th quarter 2016 Exports are propping up the recovery Domestic demand remains too sluggish GDP should increase +1.5% in 2017 Leading [...]

The cost of Brexit is in fact impossible to estimate. Fiscal reform and deregulation are not magic bullets. GDP could slow to +1.6% in 2017. Uncertainty calls for caution. Key points The EU could claim 60 billion euros from the UK upon withdrawal Another setback for Theresa May Compensating for the impact of a hard [...]

Lack of impetus in the second quarter. Consumption remains robust. Export recovery in 2017. Leading indicators are strong. What opportunities are financial markets offering? Key points The economy stepped up the pace in 2016, despite a disappointing second quarter Considerable positive contribution from consumption Slight increase in public spending Overall increase in domestic demand Foreign [...]