Weekly analysis

The Euro has risen +7%, hitting our medium-term target of 1.15, and recovering 75% of 2015’s fall. The cost of hedging US dollar positions has now hit 2.2%/year. Key points The Euro has risen +7%, achieving our medium-term target of 1.15 The Swiss franc has once again lost 75% of the appreciation caused by dropping [...]

Biofuels: Increase in crude oil prices and pick-up in exports to benefit US producers Key points Equities from the biofuel sector have risen +13.10% since the beginning of the year, against +12.94% for the MSCI World TR Index and -9.15% for energy the energy sector (MSCI World Energy TR) In H2, positive prospects for crude [...]

Swiss and International listed real estate significantly increased in 2017. Demand benefits from the acceleration of global growth and from mostly negative real interest rates. Key points Global listed real estate increases by +9.53% since the beginning of the year Negative real rates and the acceleration of global growth are positive factors in 2017 Overweight [...]

Crude oil price trend reversal likely in the second half of the year. Rise in demand propped up by China and India. Precious and industrial metals to rise in the near future. Key points A rise in US production along with economic disappointments have weighed heavily on crude oil prices Trend reversal likely in the [...]

Broken promises sent the dollar down. The euro benefits from strengthening fundamentals. The yen will not appreciate without inflation. Widening of the CHF-EUR spread. Key points The US dollar was hit by negative economic surprises and broken promises from President Trump on Investment and Fiscal policy The « trade-weighted » USD is down -5.3% since [...]

The Fed sticks to monetary normalisation. ECB’s economic projections are encouraging. Renewed inflation in the UK. Risks of deflation have decreased in Japan. Key points Heading for a rise in long-term rates in the United States However, the trend in the US must take better root The ECB is preparing a gentle approach to monetary [...]

Factoring in carbon risks, now’s the time! Key points Once again, 2016 set new records in terms of temperature anomalies: +1°C compared to the 1951-1980 average Let us recall the COP 21 goals: to keep the global temperature rise ‘well below +2°C’ and ‘to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase to +1.5°C’ An increasing [...]

Economic forecasts adjusted. Modest inflation. Long-term rates recovery. The Fed is sticking to its plan. Consumers remain confident. The S&P 500 is too highly dependent on GAFAs. Key points Lower GDP growth (+1.4%) in Q1 2nd quarter should be better (+3.1%) Negative economic surprises Leading indicators are sowing doubt The labour market is tense Donald [...]

GDP growth accelerates to +1.9%. Franco-German couple rekindled. Fall in political uncertainty. Clear increase in company profits. Consensus is optimistic. Key points The Eurozone is still able to produce surprises, with a stronger than forecast economic trend Better growth prospects for the Eurozone in 2017 Reforms in France versus fiscal expansion in Germany? Real terms [...]

Exports are driving growth (+3.9%). Spending is disappointing (+0.1%). Inflation rises +0.5%. Leading indicators are lagging behind. The SNB believes the Swiss franc to be overvalued. Key points Best quarter for growth in Swiss GDP since June 2016 (+0.3%) Clear, welcome bounce back in exports (+3.9%) Private spending is struggling (+0.1%) despite the unemployment rate [...]