Weekly analysis

Whatever the magnitude of the shock in Q1, what matters is the strength of the upswing in Q2. Sharp recovery of GDP. Inventory rebuild not to be underestimated. Rise in equities. Key points China did not just halt its economy in February, it also implemented a series of extraordinary stimulus measures What can we expect [...]

Likely recession in H1. BOE lowers rates and increases asset purchases. Swift rebound of long-term rates. New opportunities in real estate and equities. Key points Boris Johnson does a U-turn and gives up on his so-called herd immunity strategy U-turn in terms of economic policy: fiscal stimulus package BOE announces exceptional measures Two consecutive key [...]

Massive injections of liquidity. Trend reversal on long-term rates. Monetisation of new government debt. Opportunities in equities and real estate. Key points ECB announces new 750 billion PEPP to support the EU’s economy An essential action given the considerable risks of economic collapse ECB to reassure markets on quality of periphery countries’ debt Trend reversal [...]

GDP drop in Q4 2019. Likely recession in the current quarter. Exceptional new economic support measures. Prospects are now positive for the Nikkei. Key points Japan’s GDP collapsed before the coronavirus crisis Japan will almost certainly enter into recession in Q1 2020 More government economic support measures to come Loss of relevance of leading indicators [...]

The Covid-19 threat was totally disregarded. Only active asset management can defend against a market shock. Is Covid-19 a lasting threat? What’s the likelihood of a rapid recovery? Key points A genuine threat, albeit completely ignored for close to two months Only active and rational asset management can defend against a market shock Covid-19 is [...]

Covid-19 will also affect Switzerland’s GDP. As expected, the franc is in high demand in the short term. The growth outlook has deteriorated. Panic is finally impacting equities. Key points +0.3% growth in Switzerland in Q4 raised hopes of a good start to 2020 Growth was still driven by private and public consumption in Q4 [...]

400 billion in cash injections in Q4. Expansion or status quo in 2020? High earnings expectations. Extreme equity valuations. More risks than opportunities. Key points Massive and questionable cash injections in Q4 400 billion in new liquidity Why has the Fed intervened so massively? Dangerous interdependency between markets and monetary policy Financial markets gamble on [...]

Reduced trade tensions. Rising uncertainty relating to the elections. Resurgence of geopolitical risks. +2% GDP growth in 2020. Extreme equity valuations. Key points Real GDP growth of approximately +2.2% in 2019 and +2% in 2020 Risk of polarisation between the Democrats’ and Republicans’ political programmes Election year could prove turbulent for investors Growth in 2020 [...]

Conservatives win absolute majority. The path to Brexit is becoming clearer. Lower levels of uncertainty favourable to the pound. Long-term rates rise. BOE ready to cut rates. Key points British voters are done with political foot-dragging on Brexit Brexit will happen In a good position to negotiate a softer Brexit Although a technical recession was [...]

GDP up +0.2% in Q3. Germany holds out on the edge of recession. ECB maintains status quo. Change of outlook for long-term rates. Valuations in Europe’s favour. Key points Q3 slightly better than expected in the Eurozone Growth in Q3 driven by consumption, government spending and exports Leading indicators leave room for doubt Consumer confidence [...]