02
Aug
Energy and commodity prices are finally declining. Inflation may have peaked. Recession risks outweigh inflation fears. The bearish scenario is widely shared. Markets likely to rebound in Q3. Key points Recession risk intensify Consumption and production are adjusting Inflation persists but will decline in the second half The recent fall in commodity prices is reducing [...]
29
Jul
Domestic demand is supporting growth. Strong franc dampens inflationary momentum. Unexpected change in monetary policy by the SNB. Extreme volatility in the capital market. A window of opportunity opens for Swiss stocks. Key points Swiss economy resists headwinds Public and private consumption remain the main drivers of the Swiss economy Leading indicators continue to plummet [...]
27
Jul
On August 10, US inflation for July will be published and will certainly show a much-awaited inflection point after the +9.1% figure for the previous month, in a context of a notable drop in commodity prices since June 8 (-14.6% S&PGSI Commodity Index). While a decline in inflationary pressures is likely, it will not challenge [...]
19
Jul
Another negative surprise in the United States on the inflation front, which exceeded expectations in June with an increase of +9.1% (consensus +8.8%). But the real surprise is perhaps hidden behind (...) Us inflation of +9.1% did not produce the expected reaction Discover our Investment Flash down below Read more To make sure you don't [...]
12
Jul
The last stock market week before the publication of the US inflation figures on July 13 was particularly uncertain. A few days before the announcement of the US CPI expected to rise from +8.6% in May to +8.8% for the month of June, the markets hesitated and the compasses seemed to panic (..) June inflation [...]
05
Jul
The release of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator surprisingly indicated a sharp drop in a few days in the US GDP from +0.72% on June 28 to -2.07% on July 1st. The U.S. economy would therefore have already entered a recession by June 30, according to this indicator thus upsetting current expectations of (...) Fixed [...]
29
Jun
After falling sharply from a high of $123.6 on June 14, WTI oil prices rebounded above $110 before the OPEC+ meeting, but are expected to end the month with their first monthly decline since November 2021. After a +9.5% rise in May, a stabilization or even a decline of -3 to -5% in June should [...]
29
Jun
Peak inflation is certainly close but signs are slow to appear. The loss of household purchasing power is affecting confidence and GDP growth. Recession risks are no longer to be ignored. Downward revisions of the outlook. Key points Sharp downward revision of global growth Recession risks are increasing in the US Europe is experiencing severe [...]
24
May
Interest rate markets flare up as price and inflation soar. The yield curve adjustments are already very significant. Sustained, widespread tension in European rates. New opportunities in the dollar zone in particular. Key points Net deterioration of the economic prospects 2022 Intesrest rate markets flare up as prices and inflation soar Opportunities arise for short-term [...]
11
Mar
Disappointing economic recovery in 2021. Weak Q1 2022. Government stimulus package supports consumption. Difficult environment for exports. Contained inflation. Weak yen. Opportunities for the Nikkei. Key points Japanese GDP disappointed in Q4 2021 Risk of GDP contraction in Q1 Growth prospects overestimated in 2022 Falling PMIs threaten industrial production Household consumption suffers a double whammy [...]
