Weekly analysis

Acceleration of growth in Q2 (+5.6%). GDP to increase by +7% in 2021. Effective vaccination campaign. Massive economic support. Positive wealth effect. Excess savings. Increases in inflation, long-term rates and the dollar. Key points Transition in Q1 to visible acceleration of growth already in Q2 2021 to set record with GDP growth close to +7% [...]

GDP contraction of -1.5% in Q1. Outlook reduced to +4% for the year. ECB accelerates its PEPP and could inject 60 bn euros/month. PMIs are optimistic. Interest rate increases temporarily curbed. Weakening euro. Key points European GDP expected to fall by a further -1.5% in Q1 The glaring failure of the vaccination campaigns calls for [...]

UK GDP contracted by -2.9% in January. Exports to the EU plunged by -40.7%. Economic recovery postponed to Q2. Rising long-term interest rates and the prospect of an end to the lockdown support the pound. Key points UK GDP shrinks by -2.9% in January Historic fall in British exports Border controls and breach of protocol [...]

Recovery will only get under way in Q2. High potential for recovery of Japanese exports. Consumption may strengthen significantly. Weakness of the yen is the only option. Upward revision of corporate profits. Key points Double-digit growth in Q4 points to positive momentum for 2021 Increase in consumption and exports Better outlook for Q2 Leading indicators [...]

Switzerland is emerging from the crisis in a position of strength. GDP is already benefiting from Asia’s recovery. Swiss franc depreciation is gaining momentum. SNB to post extraordinary profits in 2021. The bond market is gone. Caution on equities. Key points Swiss GDP growth of +0.3% in Q4 2020 is higher than expected Domestic demand [...]

Economic stimulus plans also favourable to real estate. The health crisis will not have a profound effect on yields. Real estate remains an effective hedge against a resumption of inflation. Time to invest. Key points Volatility in January did not spare international securitised real estate Alignment of regional and national economic cycles favourable to real [...]

A Probable rebound for the long-term rates in 2021. Increase in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. market. Inflationary risks underestimated. Beware of risk premiums and durations. Key points A bearish beginning of the year for the interest rate markets under the influence of the US Treasury Unanticipated but probable rebound in long-term rates in [...]

EU finally to release 750 bn in recovery spending. GDP likely to contract in Q4. ECB to increase its support programmes. Fall in risk premiums reaches its limits. Risks return to the markets. Key points End of 1st element of suspense: EU will finally be able to distribute 750 billion in Covid relief End of [...]

Economic momentum slows. Weakened employment and consumption. Priority to growth. Unavoidable continuation of deficit monetisation. Rising earnings for equities. Key points GDP momentum expected to slow sharply in Q4 Employment remains fragile and could penalise consumption. The four priorities of the new US president Rising government deficit and risks of structural depreciation of the US [...]

Growth above expectations. Solid domestic demand. Positive outlook for 2021. The franc still seems overvalued. A digital Swiss franc? Consolidation of Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP surged by +7.2% in Q3, almost making up for the -8.6% drop at the end of June Domestic demand is surprisingly strong Switzerland has better been able to [...]