10
Aug
Negative GDP in Q2. Resilient leading indicators. The BoE fears inflation at +12%. Monetary policy measured. Decreasing risks for the pound. Opportunities in bonds. Attractive relative valuations for equities. Key points UK GDP advanced by +0.8% in Q1 The 2nd quarter could be down by -0.2 Surprising resilience of leading indicators in Q2 Unemployment rate [...]
09
Aug
The recession scenario has spread quite widely in the financial markets for several months, pushing commodity prices down significantly. Oil prices have thus fallen by almost -30% since their double top in March and June above $120/b. The US WTI price ($87.8/bbl) is now close to its October 2021 level again and is trading almost [...]
05
Aug
New contraction in Q2?. Leading indicators not encouraging. Domestic consumption remains weak. Imports +46%. Exports +19%. Low inflation in international comparison. Status quo at the BoJ. Opportunities in stocks. Key points Is a new contraction of GDP in Q2 possible ? Growth outlook revised downward Leading indicators point to further limited growth in Q3 Households [...]
03
Aug
July proved to be an excellent month for most financial assets, but clearly not for hedge funds (+0.5%), which largely underperformed during this period of recovery in international equities (+7.9%), real estate (+6.9%), private equity (+17.9%) and bonds (+2.1%). Overall, hedge funds do not seem to have anticipated the stock market recovery short covering the [...]
02
Aug
Energy and commodity prices are finally declining. Inflation may have peaked. Recession risks outweigh inflation fears. The bearish scenario is widely shared. Markets likely to rebound in Q3. Key points Recession risk intensify Consumption and production are adjusting Inflation persists but will decline in the second half The recent fall in commodity prices is reducing [...]
29
Jul
Domestic demand is supporting growth. Strong franc dampens inflationary momentum. Unexpected change in monetary policy by the SNB. Extreme volatility in the capital market. A window of opportunity opens for Swiss stocks. Key points Swiss economy resists headwinds Public and private consumption remain the main drivers of the Swiss economy Leading indicators continue to plummet [...]
27
Jul
On August 10, US inflation for July will be published and will certainly show a much-awaited inflection point after the +9.1% figure for the previous month, in a context of a notable drop in commodity prices since June 8 (-14.6% S&PGSI Commodity Index). While a decline in inflationary pressures is likely, it will not challenge [...]
19
Jul
Another negative surprise in the United States on the inflation front, which exceeded expectations in June with an increase of +9.1% (consensus +8.8%). But the real surprise is perhaps hidden behind (...) Us inflation of +9.1% did not produce the expected reaction Discover our Investment Flash down below Read more To make sure you don't [...]
12
Jul
The last stock market week before the publication of the US inflation figures on July 13 was particularly uncertain. A few days before the announcement of the US CPI expected to rise from +8.6% in May to +8.8% for the month of June, the markets hesitated and the compasses seemed to panic (..) June inflation [...]
05
Jul
The release of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator surprisingly indicated a sharp drop in a few days in the US GDP from +0.72% on June 28 to -2.07% on July 1st. The U.S. economy would therefore have already entered a recession by June 30, according to this indicator thus upsetting current expectations of (...) Fixed [...]
