Weekly analysis

Alternative investments have not delivered on their promise since the 2008 crisis. Today more than ever, caution is advised. BBGI Alternative+ : A different approach to alternative investments. Key Points Alternative investments are not the magic bullet investors were expecting in terms of performance and asset de-correlation Unsatisfactory performance still manifest in 2018 However, disappointing [...]

Bullish recovery for US equities. Use the opportunity to reposition in emerging markets. Probable loss of « momentum » for European equities. Buy Switzerland. Key Points The correction in equity markets offers new opportunities The recent phase of underperformance of the American market should not last Bullish recovery for US equities Positive outlook, but risks [...]

Expected recovery in real estate in April. Rates are not yet a real threat. Favorable risk premium. The Eurozone outperforms. Return of interest for the US. Points clés Sharp rebound in real estate after a temporary correction of the indices International growth favorable to real estate Rising interest rates may soon be threatening in some [...]

Higher expected inflation in the USA. Warning on the interest rate markets. The European cycle is still hesitating. Confederation yields finally settle above zero. Key points US Treasury long rates above 3% Gradual rise in expected inflation Reversal of the long-term rate cycle in the euro area British long-term rate at 2% Still no prospect [...]

The risk of a “trade war” is overstated. A rise in customs duties will not reduce demand. Limited production, robust demand, falling inventories. Key points Industrial metals slide -7% in the 1st quarter, with only nickel playing its hand well Risks of a trade war are sparking widespread profit-taking Ongoing tensions, China will call on [...]

Sustained growth in the Eurozone. Insufficient inflation. Risks of a strong Euro. Rise in long rates. Opportunities for Eurozone equities. Low PE and high yield. Key points The end of quantitative easing heralds upcoming key rate normalisation The ECB will wait until inflation heads above 2% before changing its interest rates The risks of a [...]

Is growth already slowing? Gradual rise in expected inflation. Risk of a trade war. Margins, profits and multipliers contract. Caution on the S&P 500. Points clés The Fed has announced two further rate rises in 2018, and likely three in 2019 Key rates at 2.875% in 2019 Is US growth already slowing? GDP forecast to [...]

GDP is flagging. Twelve months to reach an agreement on Brexit terms. The pound remains stable and monetary policy unchanged. Long rates rise. Caution advised on equities. Points clés Economic activity flags in Q4 (+0.4%), 2018 expectations at +1.5% Agreement on post-Brexit transition period offers relief given tense context Forestalling failure in 12 months Cost [...]

It is essential that the yen weaken. Consumption and leading indicators are wavering. Exports and corporate earnings are faltering. Going long the Nikkei is premature. Key points The strong yen is threatening Japanese growth Risk of economic slowdown in Q1 2018 The export cycle has already decelerated Corporate earnings growth is faltering Private consumption trends [...]

The Swiss franc’s weak spell is not over. The bond bubble is deflating. Tensions on the interest rate curve. Corrections to risky assets could represent an opportunity. Key points The forecast acceleration of Swiss GDP in the second half of the year will continue in 2018 +2.2% GDP growth in 2018 Leading indicators are looking [...]