Weekly analysis

A Probable rebound for the long-term rates in 2021. Increase in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. market. Inflationary risks underestimated. Beware of risk premiums and durations. Key points A bearish beginning of the year for the interest rate markets under the influence of the US Treasury Unanticipated but probable rebound in long-term rates in [...]

EU finally to release 750 bn in recovery spending. GDP likely to contract in Q4. ECB to increase its support programmes. Fall in risk premiums reaches its limits. Risks return to the markets. Key points End of 1st element of suspense: EU will finally be able to distribute 750 billion in Covid relief End of [...]

Economic momentum slows. Weakened employment and consumption. Priority to growth. Unavoidable continuation of deficit monetisation. Rising earnings for equities. Key points GDP momentum expected to slow sharply in Q4 Employment remains fragile and could penalise consumption. The four priorities of the new US president Rising government deficit and risks of structural depreciation of the US [...]

Growth above expectations. Solid domestic demand. Positive outlook for 2021. The franc still seems overvalued. A digital Swiss franc? Consolidation of Swiss equities. Key points Swiss GDP surged by +7.2% in Q3, almost making up for the -8.6% drop at the end of June Domestic demand is surprisingly strong Switzerland has better been able to [...]

Probable contraction of -2.5% in Q4. Increasing economic risks at the beginning of 2021. Limited room for manoeuvre for the BoE. Weak pound sterling. FTSE 100 trading at 17% discount. Key points A few more days to avoid a disastrous no-deal Brexit for the British Temporary rebound in GDP in Q3 Probable contraction of -2.5% [...]

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case scenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to [...]

Disappointing GDP growth. Greater economic risks in Q4. The BoE is considering applying negative rates. Long rates are close to zero. Negative prospects for the pound and equities. Key points A no deal Brexit is on the horizon, the worst-case scenario is becoming increasingly likely 1 trillion euros’ worth of trade will be subject to [...]

The health crisis is making a comeback in Europe. The ECB is monetising public and private debt. Capital markets are under control. The agreement of 21 July strengthens the euro. Significant downside risks for equities. Key points Economic downturn in the European Union Germany shores up European growth EU rules on public debt will have [...]

Overly optimistic expectations for US GDP. Growth likely to slow in Q4. Rising budget deficit. Massive and unconditional support from the Fed. High risks for equities. Key points Second wave of Covid-19 could slow US economic recovery Over-optimistic expectations for US GDP? US elections will reinforce the new fiscal paradigm Rising taxes threaten financial markets [...]

Sharper contraction of GDP (-7.9%) and corporate profits (-46%) in Q2. GDP expected to recover in Q3. Profit growth of +21% in 2021. Excessive valuation of the Nikkei. Key points The change in prime minister will have no influence on Japan’s economic policy Japan’s GDP contracted more sharply than expected in Q2 2020 The Japanese [...]