Weekly analysis

The risk of a “trade war” is overstated. A rise in customs duties will not reduce demand. Limited production, robust demand, falling inventories. Key points Industrial metals slide -7% in the 1st quarter, with only nickel playing its hand well Risks of a trade war are sparking widespread profit-taking Ongoing tensions, China will call on [...]

Sustained growth in the Eurozone. Insufficient inflation. Risks of a strong Euro. Rise in long rates. Opportunities for Eurozone equities. Low PE and high yield. Key points The end of quantitative easing heralds upcoming key rate normalisation The ECB will wait until inflation heads above 2% before changing its interest rates The risks of a [...]

Is growth already slowing? Gradual rise in expected inflation. Risk of a trade war. Margins, profits and multipliers contract. Caution on the S&P 500. Points clés The Fed has announced two further rate rises in 2018, and likely three in 2019 Key rates at 2.875% in 2019 Is US growth already slowing? GDP forecast to [...]

GDP is flagging. Twelve months to reach an agreement on Brexit terms. The pound remains stable and monetary policy unchanged. Long rates rise. Caution advised on equities. Points clés Economic activity flags in Q4 (+0.4%), 2018 expectations at +1.5% Agreement on post-Brexit transition period offers relief given tense context Forestalling failure in 12 months Cost [...]

It is essential that the yen weaken. Consumption and leading indicators are wavering. Exports and corporate earnings are faltering. Going long the Nikkei is premature. Key points The strong yen is threatening Japanese growth Risk of economic slowdown in Q1 2018 The export cycle has already decelerated Corporate earnings growth is faltering Private consumption trends [...]

The Swiss franc’s weak spell is not over. The bond bubble is deflating. Tensions on the interest rate curve. Corrections to risky assets could represent an opportunity. Key points The forecast acceleration of Swiss GDP in the second half of the year will continue in 2018 +2.2% GDP growth in 2018 Leading indicators are looking [...]

Dollar increasingly likely to bounce back. Waning influence of European fundamentals on the euro. Brexit to weigh on the pound again. Beware of the overly strong yen. Further adjustment of the franc. Key points The dollar is likely to strengthen after three years of consolidation and a 50% correction following the 2011-2016 bull market Speculative [...]

The consensus is still sceptical regarding the inflation recovery. The United States could surprise us in 2018. Correlation on rate markets. Be careful of the European market. Rate rise in Switzerland. Key points Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Rate hikes and flattening yield curve A rise in long-term rates is [...]

Global growth speeds up. Rent and prices rise. Rates no longer represent a threat. Favourable risk premium. The Eurozone and Asia outperform. Key points Upward real estate trend continues in 2017 and 2018 Global growth picks up to +4% Interest rates still do not constitute a threat in 2018 Inflation will keep real-terms rates historically [...]

Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3%. Pressures on corporate margins. Flattening of the yield curve. End of PE expansion. Caution on the S&P 500. Key points Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3% Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Flattening of the yield curve Rise of the dollar after three [...]