Weekly analysis

Worrisome decline in GDP growth (+0.1%). Theresa May has no plan B. Increasing likelihood of a referendum. Intolerable costs of a “no deal”. Avoid equities and bonds. Key points Theresa May will play her last card in January Why not consider a plan B? New referendum to break the deadlock Only 34% of the British [...]

Yield curve inversion still synonymous with recession? Flattening versus inversion. Current situation and outlook. The Fed is not dogmatic. Unfounded fears. Key points Markets spooked in December by the risk of a yield curve inversion Risk-off mode prevails everywhere What yield curve inversion are we talking about exactly? Yield curve flattening rather than inverting? Is [...]

Sharpest contraction of GDP since 2014. Economic rally in Q4. Stabilisation of the yen. Leading indicators weighed down by uncertainty. Inflation reaches +1.4%. Nikkei on the upswing. Key points Unexpected growth shock in Q3; Japanese GDP dropped by -0.6%, or -2.5% yoy Exports pick up in Q4 Trade balance turned negative Imports jumped by +19.9% [...]

GDP contracts by -0.2% in Q3. Swiss growth remains dependent on German economy. Normal yield curve. Stabilisation of the franc. Positive outlook on equities. Points clés Euphoria gives way to bewilderment Downward revision of the growth outlook for Swiss GDP Surprise collapse of economic momentum in Q3 Swiss economy impacted by trade tensions between Beijing [...]

Dollar temporarily at an advantage. Euro expected to rise. Depreciation of the franc. Upswing in emerging currencies. Pound still hostage to Brexit. Weak yen. Key points The increase in stock market volatility did not significantly impact foreign exchange markets Limited rise of the trade-weighted dollar The increasing pace of growth is temporarily lending strength to [...]

Temporary easing in international bond markets. Correlations remain high among major markets. Inflation still moderate. Avoid the Eurozone and the high yield segment. Key points Interest rate markets broadly benefitting from uncertainty in October US market offers very attractive opportunities Long-term interest rates likely to tighten in the Eurozone Adjustment of long-term rates in the [...]

Slowdown in growth. Ambiguous leading indicators. End of quantitative easing. Paradigm shift with regard to long-term rates. Attractive European equity risk premium. Weekly Analysis Key points Slower GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%), +2.1% yoy GDP growth hampered by decline in foreign trade Trade surplus down 45% in July Leading indicators losing momentum German economy is [...]

Exceptional GDP growth of +4.2% in Q2. Inevitable deceleration in 2019. Risk centred on tariffs. Long-term rate increase. Keep an eye on profits. Caution with regard to the S&P 500. Key points Exceptional GDP growth of +4.2% in Q2 Eighth rate hike by the Fed, moving towards the 3.1% fed funds target for 2019 Fed [...]

Higher GDP growth in Q2 (+0.4%). Unexpected upswing in inflation. Pound hostage to the political situation. Steepening yield curve. No Brexit solution. Points clés Theresa May further weakened by the EU’s rejection of the Chequers plan The option of a new referendum is making headway as a means of breaking the deadlock A majority of [...]

Highest rate of GDP growth since 2016. Expected depreciation of the yen is the determining factor. Leading indicators still uncertain. Rising inflation. Nikkei achieves 24,000 target. Key points Unexpected and welcome surge in Japanese GDP (+0.7%) after a weak Q1 (-0.2%) Highest annualised rate of GDP growth since 2016 (+3%) Pace of growth to remain [...]