Category: Weekly Analysis

Passive investment management is much more active than it may seem. The role of index tracking in the creation of speculative bubbles. When index tracking leads to maximum risk-taking. Key points 1,200 index-tracking and actively managed ETFs listed on the Swiss stock exchange Growth in number of index-tracking ETFs: a reaction to concentrated strategies and [...]

The dollar is rising again. The euro benefits from stronger fundamentals. Further stabilisation of the pound. The yen will be back between 115 and 120 in the upcoming months. Key points The US dollar will benefit from significant improvement in the economic outlook and the yield spread Speculative positions also point to a rise of [...]

Real estate markets buoyed up by the increased pace of economic growth. Rent and prices rise. Rates remain a positive factor. The Eurozone and Asia overperform. Key points International real estate grows +1.6% in 1st quarter and +10.8% over nine months Interest rate rises have no negative effect Historically low real terms interest rates Listed [...]

US production stabilises. Reduction in global supply. Inventories contracting. Saudi Arabia further reduces exports. Chinese imports on the rise. Key points Positive performance for commodities due to upswing of oil prices Brent-WTI spread at record high WTI likely to outperform in the short term US production stabilises Global supply finally declines thanks to OPEC Saudi [...]

A preliminary financial agreement is crucial. GDP is flagging. Inflation remains high. The devaluation of the pound is having a limited impact. Rate hike likely in November. Key points A financial agreement with Europe before negotiating other aspects of Brexit Is Theresa May still in charge? The pound rises and stabilises against the major currencies [...]

Tax reform has finally been announced. Economic growth is strengthening. Fed balance sheet normalisation begins. Rise in rates and the US dollar. High risk for equities. Key points In the end, corporate tax will be set at 20% instead of 35% Income tax reduced; maximum rate decrease from 39.6% to 35% Donald Trump’s tax reform [...]

GDP up +2.5% yoy. Positive contribution of exports and consumption. Improvement in earnings growth outlook. Nikkei relatively attractive. Key points GDP growth in Japan accelerates to +2.5% yoy Export boom continues (+18.1%) Trade balance grows to 113 billion yen The North Korean crisis fails to affect private consumption, up +0.6% Wave of positive economic indicators [...]

Eurozone and US growth is level pegging. Fundamentals justify the rise in the Euro. The gap between valuation and profits is benefiting European companies. Key points The German elections have dampened prospects of European reconstruction The ECB is confident, but concerned by the rise in the Euro Monetary policy will remain expansionary in 2018, despite [...]