Category: Weekly Analysis
30
Jan
The consensus is still sceptical regarding the inflation recovery. The United States could surprise us in 2018. Correlation on rate markets. Be careful of the European market. Rate rise in Switzerland. Key points Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Rate hikes and flattening yield curve A rise in long-term rates is [...]
30
Jan
Global growth speeds up. Rent and prices rise. Rates no longer represent a threat. Favourable risk premium. The Eurozone and Asia outperform. Key points Upward real estate trend continues in 2017 and 2018 Global growth picks up to +4% Interest rates still do not constitute a threat in 2018 Inflation will keep real-terms rates historically [...]
05
Jan
Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3%. Pressures on corporate margins. Flattening of the yield curve. End of PE expansion. Caution on the S&P 500. Key points Difficult to sustain US growth exceeding +3% Upturn in inflation could be the surprise of the year Flattening of the yield curve Rise of the dollar after three [...]
19
Dec
Eurozone growth is stepping up. The Euro has stabilised temporarily. A rise in long-term rates is on the cards for 2018. European assets will outperform in 2018. Key points The ECB seems particularly optimistic and is sticking to its monetary policy Growth forecasts have increased to +2.3% (2018) Inflation will remain modest in 2018 (+1.4%) [...]
14
Dec
Brexit negotiations resuming. GDP holding up (+0.4%). The BOE to keep rates unchanged for a time. Inevitable increase in long-term rates. Lethargic equities market. Key points GDP up +0.4%, or +1.5% yoy Finally, sufficient progress to move on to the second phase of the negotiations Is the UK giving up? The hardest is yet to [...]
08
Dec
The Japanese economy still has momentum. Exports are still the main driver of growth. Consumer spending remains tentative. The Nikkei may already be reflecting earnings growth. Key points GDP rose a further +0.6% in Q4 (+2.5% yoy) Longest economic expansion phase in Japan since the mid-90s Exports continue to drive growth, rising +14.1% yoy GDP [...]
05
Dec
Manufacturing sector boom. Exports and consumption likely to recover. The Swiss franc will continue to be weak. More than 25 billion in profit for the SNB in 2017. Key points GDP rose +0.6% in the 3rd quarter, and +1.2% yoy Strong prospects for the last quarter GDP growth for 2017 estimated at +1.5% Favourable forecasts [...]
30
Nov
Bitcoin will not become a currency. Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies. Blockchain technology. Stricter regulatory framework. Bubble to burst in 2018? Key points Bitcoin is not and will not become a legal currency in its current form Central banks hostile to private cryptocurrencies - overview of current views Stricter regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies Central [...]
29
Nov
Crises and uncertainty benefit Bitcoin. Supply is designed to be increasingly scarce. Bitcoin is not a currency but an asset. The third speculative bubble is growing. Will it burst in 2018? Key points Black Friday and Cyber Monday have pushed Bitcoin to 10,000 USD 300,000 new users on the Coinbase platform just before Thanksgiving weekend [...]
09
Nov
Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 (PE 22x). Risk premium once again irrational. Historic volatility at its lowest since 2007. Tax reform failure could make Wall Street plummet. Key points Irrational exuberance or just excessive optimism in the short term? Extreme valuation of the S&P 500 in 2017 The GAFAs and Microsoft accounted for 61% [...]