Weekly analysis

Broken promises sent the dollar down. The euro benefits from strengthening fundamentals. The yen will not appreciate without inflation. Widening of the CHF-EUR spread. Key points The US dollar was hit by negative economic surprises and broken promises from President Trump on Investment and Fiscal policy The « trade-weighted » USD is down -5.3% since [...]

The Fed sticks to monetary normalisation. ECB’s economic projections are encouraging. Renewed inflation in the UK. Risks of deflation have decreased in Japan. Key points Heading for a rise in long-term rates in the United States However, the trend in the US must take better root The ECB is preparing a gentle approach to monetary [...]

Factoring in carbon risks, now’s the time! Key points Once again, 2016 set new records in terms of temperature anomalies: +1°C compared to the 1951-1980 average Let us recall the COP 21 goals: to keep the global temperature rise ‘well below +2°C’ and ‘to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase to +1.5°C’ An increasing [...]

Economic forecasts adjusted. Modest inflation. Long-term rates recovery. The Fed is sticking to its plan. Consumers remain confident. The S&P 500 is too highly dependent on GAFAs. Key points Lower GDP growth (+1.4%) in Q1 2nd quarter should be better (+3.1%) Negative economic surprises Leading indicators are sowing doubt The labour market is tense Donald [...]

GDP growth accelerates to +1.9%. Franco-German couple rekindled. Fall in political uncertainty. Clear increase in company profits. Consensus is optimistic. Key points The Eurozone is still able to produce surprises, with a stronger than forecast economic trend Better growth prospects for the Eurozone in 2017 Reforms in France versus fiscal expansion in Germany? Real terms [...]

Exports are driving growth (+3.9%). Spending is disappointing (+0.1%). Inflation rises +0.5%. Leading indicators are lagging behind. The SNB believes the Swiss franc to be overvalued. Key points Best quarter for growth in Swiss GDP since June 2016 (+0.3%) Clear, welcome bounce back in exports (+3.9%) Private spending is struggling (+0.1%) despite the unemployment rate [...]

May’s gamble fails to pay off. No more hard Brexit? The pound stabilises. GDP in decline. Real estate losing steam. Inflation to drive long-term rates up. Insufficient visibility on equities. Key points Theresa May could well miss the mark during the upcoming general election Chance of more serene negotiations A less hostile Brexit? Likely stabilisation [...]

Falling yen boosts exports. GDP also benefits from global economic recovery. Stabilisation of the yen. Pick-up in consumption. Increase in profits. Nikkei undervalued. Key points Remarkable Q1 in Japan in terms of economic growth Fifth consecutive month of export growth Japan GDP rises 2.2% yoy in March and 0.5% over the quarter Positive contribution of [...]

American politics in turmoil again. What’s happening with Trump’s tax plan? Increased uncertainty and risk of disappointment. Profit taking is vital. Buy gold! Key points American politics in turmoil again, could trigger a sudden shift in risk perception Increasingly unpredictable outlook for Donald Trump’s economic programme Expecting a less ambitious tax plan US companies will [...]

Normalisation of US monetary policy is intensifying. Some correlation on rate markets once again. Commodities and employment are propping up inflation. Key points 2017 will mark the end of global quantitative easing Normalisation of monetary policy is confirmed with the Fed’s 3rd rate rise Next steps: the ECB, BoJ, and PBOC will reduce liquidity injections [...]