11
Oct
US production stabilises. Reduction in global supply. Inventories contracting. Saudi Arabia further reduces exports. Chinese imports on the rise. Key points Positive performance for commodities due to upswing of oil prices Brent-WTI spread at record high WTI likely to outperform in the short term US production stabilises Global supply finally declines thanks to OPEC Saudi [...]
04
Oct
A preliminary financial agreement is crucial. GDP is flagging. Inflation remains high. The devaluation of the pound is having a limited impact. Rate hike likely in November. Key points A financial agreement with Europe before negotiating other aspects of Brexit Is Theresa May still in charge? The pound rises and stabilises against the major currencies [...]
02
Oct
Tax reform has finally been announced. Economic growth is strengthening. Fed balance sheet normalisation begins. Rise in rates and the US dollar. High risk for equities. Key points In the end, corporate tax will be set at 20% instead of 35% Income tax reduced; maximum rate decrease from 39.6% to 35% Donald Trump’s tax reform [...]
30
Sep
GDP up +2.5% yoy. Positive contribution of exports and consumption. Improvement in earnings growth outlook. Nikkei relatively attractive. Key points GDP growth in Japan accelerates to +2.5% yoy Export boom continues (+18.1%) Trade balance grows to 113 billion yen The North Korean crisis fails to affect private consumption, up +0.6% Wave of positive economic indicators [...]
29
Sep
Eurozone and US growth is level pegging. Fundamentals justify the rise in the Euro. The gap between valuation and profits is benefiting European companies. Key points The German elections have dampened prospects of European reconstruction The ECB is confident, but concerned by the rise in the Euro Monetary policy will remain expansionary in 2018, despite [...]
20
Sep
Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2. The SECO and the SNB revise their growth forecasts downward. Nevertheless, the likelihood of an upturn is enhanced by the appreciation of the euro. Key points Real GDP up +0.3% in Q2 A stronger euro promises further GDP growth Final demand bolsters GDP growth The trade balance is not [...]
31
Aug
The Euro has risen +7%, hitting our medium-term target of 1.15, and recovering 75% of 2015’s fall. The cost of hedging US dollar positions has now hit 2.2%/year. Key points The Euro has risen +7%, achieving our medium-term target of 1.15 The Swiss franc has once again lost 75% of the appreciation caused by dropping [...]
15
Aug
Biofuels: Increase in crude oil prices and pick-up in exports to benefit US producers Key points Equities from the biofuel sector have risen +13.10% since the beginning of the year, against +12.94% for the MSCI World TR Index and -9.15% for energy the energy sector (MSCI World Energy TR) In H2, positive prospects for crude [...]
27
Jul
Swiss and International listed real estate significantly increased in 2017. Demand benefits from the acceleration of global growth and from mostly negative real interest rates. Key points Global listed real estate increases by +9.53% since the beginning of the year Negative real rates and the acceleration of global growth are positive factors in 2017 Overweight [...]
21
Jul
Crude oil price trend reversal likely in the second half of the year. Rise in demand propped up by China and India. Precious and industrial metals to rise in the near future. Key points A rise in US production along with economic disappointments have weighed heavily on crude oil prices Trend reversal likely in the [...]
