29
Sep
The Swiss economy is resisting the risks of recession. The SNB takes a harder line. Inflation likely to stabilise. Yield spreads favorable to the euro. Attractive yields on bonds. Likely easing of interest rates positive for equities. Key points The Swiss economy continues to show its resilience Private consumption and investment in capital goods support [...]
28
Sep
Posted by BBGI Group
In Uncategorized
The acceleration of the rise in US 10-year Treasury yields above 3.75% in recent days has further strengthened the dollar, which has now appreciated by 18% against all currencies this year. The appreciation of the dollar is weighing notably on the price of crude oil, which fell by -6% last week and down -35% since [...]
21
Sep
Securitized real estate has reacted strongly to the rise in interest rates and mortgage costs observed in recent months in most countries. The -25% drop in the global EPRA Nareit Developped index (USD) has thus erased the valuation excesses of the year 2021 and is now -7% below its average value over the last ten [...]
14
Sep
The publication of the inflation figures for August did not confirm the hopes of investors who were hoping for a further decline in prices. The fall in commodity prices was insufficient to compensate for the persistent pressure on rents and food prices. The Federal Reserve should therefore logically maintain its tightening monetary policy as expected [...]
13
Sep
The shock of Russia and Ukraine going to war will have had a profound effect on the European energy sector. Governments are increasing investment and energy independence is moving up the priority list. Strong growth potential for the sector in the coming years. Key points An energy market under increasing tension In-deep reorganisation of the [...]
07
Sep
Posted by BBGI Group
In Uncategorized
Widespread return of volatility in August after six weeks of financial market recovery. The hope that inflation might have finally stopped rising in July no longer sustains the enthusiasm of investors, who are now worried that a new downward trend in prices will not be enough to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Fed's [...]
31
Aug
Posted by BBGI Group
In Uncategorized
Europe has been experiencing one of the most severe droughts on record for several weeks, which will already significantly affect grain production and wheat prices. But more recently, in China, the government has just issues a new national drought warning that also heralds one of the lowest production forecasts (...) The macro scenario hides an [...]
26
Aug
Industrial metal prices were largely affected by the drop in Chinese demand during the first half of the year, following the confinement of many cities and the sharp decline in industrial activity. The Chinese slowdown will only be temporary and a recovery in activity will lead to a return in demand for industrial metals. This [...]
16
Aug
Technical recession confirmed in Q2. The Fed still does not believe in a recession. Strong rise in household credit. Inflation starts to decelerate. A recovery already in Q3. Stabilisation of interest rate markets. Stocks rebound. Key points US economy contracts in Q2 for the 2nd consecutive quarter and enters recession Exit from recession already possible [...]
16
Aug
The unexpected 0.10% cut in Chinese one-year rates announced by the PBoC on Monday, seven months after its previous cut, underscores the Chinese authorities' concern about the economy. By international comparison, inflation in China appears to be contained with the consumer price index rising in July to +2.7% (...) Repositioning opportunities in Chinese equities? Discover [...]
