14
Apr
Slower GDP growth in Q1. A soft landing is emerging. Decline in leading indicators. Employment is finally deteriorating. Consumption expected to fall. Inflation will slip below 5%. The Fed will pause. Weakening of the dollar. Opportunities in the capital markets. Positive outlook for equities. Key points A solid year-end will give way to a soft [...]
12
Apr
After having been one of the best assets in terms of relative performance in 2022, gold has again kept its promises in 2023 increasing by +9.77% and by approaching, once again, its historical high of $2,075 per ounce. At the beginning of the year we announced that the yellow metal would benefit (...) BRICS support [...]
05
Apr
The decline in crude oil prices from their June 2022 highs above $120 to $70 was interrupted by the expectation that China would reopen and recover its demand for crude oil. As this was not forthcoming, inventories (...) Trend change for crude oil prices Discover our Investment Flash down below: Read more To make sure [...]
31
Mar
Recession likely in 2023. ECB rate target at 4%. Decorrelation of monetary policies. Bullish recovery of domestic yields. Appreciation of the euro. Attractive valuations of securitized real estate and equities. Key points European economy falters but still avoids a recession in Q4 2022 Limited economic contraction in the first half of the year Leading indicators [...]
29
Mar
The banking crisis of the last few days has had a major impact on the financial stability of Switzerland, which had never imagined to face a major crisis situation such as the one posed by the risk of bankruptcy of the country's second systemic bank. In a few hours (...) Switzerland's financial stability is in [...]
27
Mar
Recession in 2023. A resilient 1st quarter. Temporary recovery in household confidence. Inflation not under control. BoE on pause. Bond yields adjust. Real estate succumbs. Equities still attractive Key points Uk economy moves closer to a recession Q1 2023 could still be resilient Leading indicators still mixed Job market still resilient Household confidence has improved [...]
23
Mar
The US Federal Reserve meeting ended with a 0.25% increase in key rates. This may well mark the end of the monetary tightening cycle that began twelve months ago, despite the door being left open to further possible increases by (...) Markets still betting on rate cuts in 2023 Discover our Investment Flash down below: [...]
17
Mar
The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank has already pushed the American authorities and the Fed to act very quickly to avoid a panic. The former, through the voice of President Biden, sought to reassure by noting that the banking system was solid, while (...) Monetary conditions will need to be eased Discover our Investment [...]
17
Mar
The bankruptcy of the SVB has various consequences. The systemic risk seems to be ruled out by central banks. CS is a global systemic bank. SNB support was expected. A likely new paradigm for rates. Key points Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bankruptcy will affect US monetary policy The next US rate hike could be the [...]
16
Mar
Growth at a standstill in Q4. Mixed leading indicators. Slight improvement in consumer confidence. Trade deficit narrowed. Inflation down. Expansionary monetary policy. Moderate outlook for the Nikkei. Key points Japan's economy stalled in Q4 (9%) Barely positive outlook for Q1 2023 GDP growth up +1% in 2023 Leading indicators still moderately optimistic Weak improvement in [...]
